Daily Centre

2011-01-14T22:18:00.003-05:00

Solar Panel firm closes factory and Outsources to China.

The United States, the country that was the leader in green technology over the past few decades is losing its edge In the time of "greener consciousness" the US should be riding the wave of renewable energy sources to move the country forward In the past few years the US has been falling off the wave. China, the country that has outpaced the US as the biggest polluter has been emerging as the one of the biggest exporters green technology. China has taken the lead in the production and installation of wind turbines which harness wind energy. In regards to solar panels it has accounted for over half of the world's production. Its market share in the US has skyrocketed to 23% last year and is increasing fast.

Evergreen Solar the third largest manufacturer in the US has announced its closing its only American plant is now only going to manufacture them in China where it has joined a partnernship and has been getting aid from Chinese institutions. The Chinese produce solar panels more cheaply making it harder for American firms to compete in the US. Evergreen Solar's chief executive, Michael El-Hillow, has alluded that the Chinese government and its state banks are the main reasons for its Chinese ventures. The US does have programs to assist renewable energy firms but is a time consuming process and is very limited. The state of Massachusetts has previously stepped and provided some help but the company had issues with obtaining loans with US banks due to the financial crisis.

The Chinese government has done a lot to encourage foreign investment in the country. It provides subsidies, low interest loans, cheap currency and cheap labor. The US time after time has failed to call China out on these issues which violate trade rules in the World Trade Organization. China has been chipping away at every sector of American manufacturing. The US government is either unable or unwilling to do anything about it as more American jobs become permanently lost. Besides being a an economic issue, it can become a security issue with China replacing the Middle East for its energy needs. A lot more can be discussed with China, especially the fact that we are outsourcing technology that will no longer be able to produced in this country without a heavy cost... NY Times

2010-07-05T21:29:00.002-04:00

The End of the Two State Solution?

For most of the last two decades middle east peace was founded on the concept of the "two state solution" between the Israelis and the Palestinians. The foundations of this concept was cemented by the Oslo Accords between Yassir Arafat's PLO and Yitzhak Rabin the Israeli Prime Minister, which gave the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza autonomy and the prospects for an independent Palestinian State. Many radicals in the Palestinian territories want to see Israel destroyed including Hamas. By recognizing a state in Palestine could legitimize the State of Israel as that was a part of the initial agreement. Palestinian radicals believe in a 'one state' solution where Israel ceases to exist. Luckily for groups such as Hamas which controls Gaza, many people in the Likud coalition government also seem to be toying around with a 'one state' solution.

Israeli Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin, was quoted in saying that he would rather have "Palestinians living as citizens of this country then dividing up the land."- Al Jazeera

An impression of Israeli government under Benjamin Netanyahu is that they do not care for the two state solution. Currently, the government has refused to negotiate anything cohesive with moderate Fatah movement which runs the West Bank. It also doesn't help that its is increasing the Jewish settlements in the West Bank and in East Jerusalem. The defense minister Ehud Barak a former prime minister, has warned against the idea of a one state solution saying that it could lead to an establishment of an apartheid state. Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was a little bit more ominous saying that if the Palestinians and Israelis lived in one state that Israel would cease to exist. If the Palestinians cannot vote then it would resemble apartheid. If they did gain a right to vote it would no longer be a Jewish state. Al Jazeera Demographically speaking, Arab Muslims could make up the majority of the population with their already sizable presence and high birthrates.

Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition need to either start getting serious with the the West Bank and get the two-state solution back on track. Or throw in the towel on Israel as a Jewish state. A 'one state solution' is only in the best interests of Palestinian radicals.

2010-03-26T20:24:00.003-04:00

Venezuela Continues Slide into Dictatorship

Guillermo Zulaoga, the owner of the independent Venezuelan television network Globovision, was arrested for comments he made at an international press association meeting implying that Hugo Chavez' government was cracking down on the freedom of expression. Venezuela's Attorney General Luisa Ortega said that he can face prison terms for making remarks that are offensive to the President. This comes after a former provincial governor accused the Venezuelan government of backing the Basque Separatist group Eta and making the county an epicenter for international drug traffiking while on Globovision.-NYTimes

Chavez has been striking hard against his critics even harsher now that the economic conditions in the country have been deteriorating. The arrests in these cases are blatant violations of the freedom of expression and it shows the world Hugo Chavez' true colors.

2010-03-15T20:54:00.002-04:00

Karzai Angry about the Arrest of Taliban Number Two

According to an aide to Afghan President, Hamid Karzai, the President was very upset with the arrest of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who is believed to be the Taliban's number two official. The aide said that he was planning to attend a peace jirga hosted by President Karzai. Other officials in Karzai's government have accused Pakistan of trying to sabotage peace talks with the Taliban and or gain more influence in the talks. -Yahoo

2010-02-16T22:42:00.002-05:00

Mystery Surrounds the Arrest of Taliban Leader

Several days ago US and Pakistani agents arrested Mullah Abdul Ghani Brader, a key Taliban leader believed to be real close to Mullah Omar, the leader of the Afghan Taliban. His arrest appears to be a real coup for the US and its typically rocky collaboration with the Pakistani government. The Pakistani government, especially its main intelligence agency, the ISI have been real close to the Afghan Taliban and is believed to be protecting them, believing that if the US leaves Afghanistan, the Taliban will take over and the Pakistani's will regain its lost influence in the country. It was the ISI who propelled them to power back in 1996.

According to Al Jazeera, the former head of the ISI and a known Taliban sympathizer, Hamid Gul, says the arrest made by joint intelligence agencies was "unusual." The same article also suggests a theory that Brader had a falling out with other Taliban leaders. It is rumored that he was supportive of talking to the Afghan government and that he even attended secret peace talks with the Afghan government backed by the UN, and that Taliban hardliners gave him up.

From more than one article it could be concluded that Mullah Brader might have played a major role in the talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. It might have been the fact the US was playing an instrumental role in these negotiations leaving the Pakistani government out in the cold. The Pakistanis believed that they have the key negotiating cards with the Taliban; Mulla Brader might have proved them wrong. According to the New York Times, Pakistani intelligence were upset that the US was in touch with Mullah Brader's people. By supporting the CIA's capture of him, the ISI might have closed an important channel in negotiating with the Taliban. Again as previously mentioned, Pakistan's interest in Afghanistan is for the Taliban to regain power any real peace talks would have to go through Islamabad.

The US government denied that Brader was involved with any talks. They also said that the Pakistani government has increased its cooperation tracking down al Qaeda and the Taliban. -Dawn We shall see in the next few months what the results would be of this capure. Two things might happen, (A) if the capture is useful we have an increase in success with the war against the Taliban. (B)If negotiations with the Taliban fails, then we may know why.

2010-01-28T22:45:00.002-05:00

Iran Executes Two for Being Enemies of God

Iran executed two people for being "Enemies of God" and for belonging to illegal organizations, the Kingdom's Assembly and the the Peoples' Mujahideen. The were also charged with trying to topple the Islamic Republic and of taking a part in the post-election protests despite being arrested before the presidential election. According to his lawyer, Nasrin Sotoudeh confessed only after the Iranian authorities have threatened his family. It is believed the executions took place to warn potential protesters what could await them if they protest on the Anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in February.- al Jazeera

2010-01-21T23:10:00.002-05:00

Supreme Court Rules that Corporations are allowed to have a big role in American elections.

In Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, the Supreme Court ruled that corporations are protected under the First Amendment to give money to support or oppose candidates running for office. Essentially they can intimidate elected officials if they try to legislate a law that is not to their liking. Its legalized corruption. Ordinary voters will have less if any, say in how the affairs of this country is managed. Read the editorial from the New York Times .

2009-12-22T21:23:00.004-05:00

Saad Hariri's Visit to Syria Marks US Failure in Lebanon.

Any time a Lebanese leader visits Damascus the first time there after the assassination of their father means a change has taken place. Lebanese PM Saad Hariri has accused Syrian President Bashar Assad for assassinating his father. It signifies a change of policy from adversarial to accommodation in regards to Syria. The Cedar Revolution that he helped spearhead has been waning. The reality is that Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian allies are the dominant force and that some of his March 14th allies have realized this and have been drifting to the anti-Western Hezbollah led opposition. The US in particular has been supporting Hariri's March 14th coalition since its inception on 2005. The US believed that the coalition could be used as a counterweight to Hezbollah by strengthening the Lebanese government and by limiting Syrian influence. The West also had a policy of Isolation against Syria .

A turning point was the brief out break of violence leading to Hezbollah taking control of most of Beirut in May 2008. The US failed to help them. Walid Jumblatt the leader of the Druze faction of the March 14th, whose father's assassination was blamed on Syria, drifted away from the Western camp. He spoke to Druze elders in June and told them that they must co-exist with the Shiites whose demographic has been increasing significantly. Hezbollah proved during its takeover of Beirut its power and he believed that Sunnis are potentially more dangerous. He held the view that if the Druze made accommodations with Hezbollah, they will be protected. This would also mean he would be more friendly to Syria -MEMRI

On another note, its been known that Israel and Syria have been talking to each other through Turkish channels. It is believed that Israel wants Syria back in Lebanon so it can hold Hezbollah by a leash; it is their belief that Hezbollah has become more unpredictable without Syria's presence. Western Reapproachment with Syria, started initially by France, once the colonial ruler of Syria and Lebanon, weakened US policy. The Obama administration has also quietly repudiated Bush's policy. Perhaps one of the biggest changes is that the Saudi Arabia, the biggest backer of Saad Hariri and the March 14th coalition, which recently has taken more of a conciliatory tone with Syria. - NYT

Regardless, the Pro-Western parliamentary majority is losing its clout, which means Hezbollah is on its way to monopolize its power. Iran and Syria are going to continue to reassert its influence in Lebanon and the US may be adopting Israel's view of Lebanon and that Syria's influence in the short term could be a good thing.

2009-12-21T21:18:00.004-05:00

Senior Dissident Iranian Cleric Ayotollah Montazeri Passes Away

Iranian Ayotollah, Hossein Montazeri passed due to heart failure. His loss is a big loss not just in Iran but in anywhere there are people who yearn for freedom. He was a prominent founder of the Islamic republic who was once designated to be the successor to Ayotollah Khomeini. He had a falling out with Khomeini over the fatwa against Salman Rushdie, saying that the world will think that Iran's business is murdering people. He also angered Khomeini by calling for a political and ideological reconstruction of their system.

He should reminds us of the great Chinese leader, Zhao Ziyang, who as the secretary general of the communist party, the lone dissenter against the military crackdown in Tiananmen Square. He was a believer in that a parliamentary system was needed to support China's transition toward a market economic system. 1989 was the year of both of their downfalls. Montazeri over his statements in regards to the way things were handled in the Islamic republic. Tiananmen square was Ziyang's. (wiki)He went down to the protesters on the eve of the crackdown to warn them. The end result was years under house arrest. Ayotollah Montazeri was placed under house arrest after criticizing Khomeini's successor. After being released in 2003, he continued to be vocal by backing the Iranian reform movement. He has accused the government backed by Supreme Leader Ayotollah Khamanei of being " neither Islamic nor a republic." Just recently he accused the civilian religious militia the Basij as following the "path of Satan instead of the path of God." he railed against the crackdown against the opposition after last June's disputed election and voiced his support for them. (NYT)

Hopefully his death during these tumultous times in Iran will allow him to have one last hurrah by emboldening the oposition to expose the tyranny of Ayotollah Khamanei's spiritually bankrupt regime.

His death should be marked fanfare by the US and and by other leaders of the West. He was an important Islamic scholar who called for greater civil liberties in a part of the world where leaders stifle it in the name of Islam. Although both Montazeri and Ziyang failed in life to change the system they helped create, their memories will not fade.

2009-12-09T23:10:00.002-05:00

Pakistan Seizes Weapons Allegedly from India.

Pakistani interior minister, Rehman Malik, claims that a large weapons cache recently found in the town of Bara which is close to the Afghan border, were originated in India. He accused India of fomenting instability in the country by supporting separatists in Baluchistan and militants in Waziristan. The chief minister of Punjab province also has accused India of behind attacks as he was touring hospitals visiting victims of Monday's bombings in the Lahore, which killed 48 people. (AKI)

The accusations against archenemy India is nothing new, but rarely do they ever back up their statements with facts. The weapons where discovered in areas that have a strong Taliban influence. Taliban sympathizers in the Pakistani government want the country to focus on the threat posed by India and not by ISI inspired groups. The Indian threat is the one thing that unites fractious Pakistan. With little information available its hard to discern the truth of these allegations. Pakistani FM Makhdoom Qureshi himself stated that more information would be needed to back up its assertions of India's role in the unrest.

"We need more information and material to plausibly argue our case (against India)." Qureshi (Dawn)

2009-11-30T20:45:00.003-05:00

Pakistan Blotter: "This was Just a Trailer"

A gunman shot at the house of an outspoken journalist in suburban Islamabad over the weekend. The journalist, who runs a column for the Pakistani daily the Dawn, has been very critical of the Pakistani Army's Intelligence Services (ISI). The intriguing piece of this incident was that on the next day Kamran Shafi, received an ominous phone call from a woman who said that this "was just a trailer" and that he would see the whole movie if he did not behave. He blamed the attack squarely on the ISI. NYT

If one has watched HBO's Terror in Mumbai, that quote should sound familiar. By the end of it, we were warned that the Mumbai attacks was just the trailer and movie is coming. The Indian government and most people in counterterrorism have accused the Pakistani based Lashkar e Toiba; a known terrorist group historically fighting India's rule of Kashmir. The group, guided into existence by the ISI, had its links severed by the military after 9/11 whilst it grew to closer al Qaeda. It shifted its target from focusing solely on India to a more global jihad ( in Mumbai they also went after Jews and Westerners).

The disturbing thing about the above referenced quote is that it may show the ties between the ISI and the Lashkar e Toiba. In fact a few members of the Pakistani military were arrested by the Pakistani government for allegedly playing a role in the attacks. (Long War Journal) At the same time this is not anything new but just a reminder of the ISI's role in impeding the War on Terror. It plays the wild card in the favor of al Qaeda, and the Taliban and that its role should not be forgotten.

2009-09-13T19:08:00.003-04:00

Remembering Why the West is in Afghanistan

As US involvment in Afghanistan reaches its 8th year, many people are forgetting the rationale behind this conflict and are beginning to think that we should leave Afghanistan. More soldiers are dying and they Taliban is resurging. Currently the military is asking the Obama administration for more troops. The reason why we are there is for counterterrorism. If the United States leaves Afghanistan, the Taliban will take over the country, Al Qaeda will regain its sanctuary, which could cause the eventual collapse of the Pakistani government. If Pakistan collapses its nuclear stockpile could get intercepted by al Qaeda. In the long run the pan-islamist ideology espoused by Al Qaeda and supported by the Taliban would be exported to across the globe. Losing Afghanistan is losing the war on terror.

2009-07-25T00:26:00.002-04:00

North Korea Uses Handicapped Children as Guinea Pigs

The North Korean tests their biological and chemical weapons program on handicapped children according to many defectors. It is common knowledge in North Korea that their government tests their biochemical weapons on people but in the West we are still learning the extent of it. Their biochemical weapons program may be as great as a threat as their nuclear weapons program.- Al Jazeera

2009-06-04T22:10:00.003-04:00

20th Anniversary of the Tiananmen Square Massacre Marked.

Today is the Twenty year anniversary of China's massacre of Pro-democracy protesters in Tiananmen Square in Beijing. In April of 1989. It was a sad day for democracy and human rights. Although China has liberalized economically its still holds over a billion people hostage with authoritarian rule. To remind yourselves on what happened here is a clip. Also see
PBS Frontline

2009-04-18T01:30:00.002-04:00

Pakistan Radical Released from Prison, a Sign of the Beginning of the End of the Pakistani Government?

A Pakistani Islamic radical who led the Red Mosque in Islamabad was released from prison on bail. He was one of the key leaders in the Red Mosque, who tried to establish Taliban style Islamic Law in Islamabad, which ended in a bloodbath against the Pakistani Government two years ago. This continues the trend of the Pakistani Government to give in to Islamic Radicals. The government has been showing cracks for some time, that it might be just months before the Pakistani State which we know it collapses under Taliban pressure. Expect the Red Mosque to regain its Talibanic form and impose Sharia Law throughout the capital of Islamabad as early as October of this year. Stay tuned---NYT

2009-03-28T00:07:00.003-04:00

Convoy Bombed in Sudan in January Blamed on US, Israel

A Sudanese convoy was targeted by an air strike in Eastern Sudan in January. CBSnews reported that the Israelis suspected the convoy of having arms that was going to go to Hamas. A Sudanese government official blamed the US for the bombing. Sources in Egypt also place the blame on US for bombing it, saying that the US signed an agreement with Israel to cooperate against arms smuggling. For more info.... Middle East Times

2009-02-24T20:38:00.002-05:00

Human Rights not an Important Issue with China- Hillary Clinton.

When asked about Chinese Human rights abuses, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, pretty much said that is on the backburner and that the global economic crisis and global warming are more pressing. Although human rights talk by the government has almost always been about lip service. It seems like the first time that a high ranking official mentioned that human rights is of secondary importance. Telegraph

Its a sad day for international human rights and one can expect China to use its rising leverage against the US and expect the US government to take a softer line against Beijing. With the global recession getting worse, China maybe one of the few countries that could gain from this crisis and it's more then just the financing of US debt.

2009-02-20T23:40:00.004-05:00

Police Chief of Mexico Town Resigns due to Drug Cartel Pressure.

The police chief of Ciudad Juarez a city with a population of 1.3 million across from the US city of El Paso Texas, resigned after receiving threats from local drug cartels. Two officers were killed on friday both had notes demanding that the chief of police resign or that an officer will be killed every 48hrs until he does so.-Al Jazeera Due to its location to the United States, it as a major drug smuggling route, so drug gangs are jockeying for power and influence vis-a-vis the Mexican government.

Questions to answer: Can the United States continue to ignore what is going on across its southern border? What will happen if these drug cartels continue to gain more power right outside our border, Whats going to to happen to our drug war? Are our border states going to be the next battleground with narco-terrorists, who kidnap and kill with impunity?

2009-02-19T22:08:00.002-05:00

Learning about the Islamist Mindset.

Spiegel Online interviewed a former Islamist on their mindsets. Perhaps we already know what fosters radicalism, whether its alienation, violence against Muslims or just religious perversion. The interview with Ghaffar Hussain a former member of Hizb ut-Tahrir explains what may radicalize Muslims. In Europe many young Muslims feel marginalized and do not feel connected with their society or with their parents generation. Like a reason why people join gangs, they want to belong feel a part of something. Many conservative and extremists Muslims preach about the idea of the Islamic nation and that it should be united and strengthen. They show violent images of attacks against Islam or Muslims and our taught that they should fight against them. The West has corrupted most Muslims and they should not follow their example, for they are not real Muslims. Its a very interesting interview and has references on how to deal with this issue.

2009-02-11T23:45:00.003-05:00

Middle East Peace goes Through Ramallah

As the Israeli elections come to an end and the victorious parties try to make a coalition government, whatever government forms, whether it is a national unity goverment under centrist Tzipi Livni or a right-wing government under Benjamin Netanyahu, they are going to have to find a way to deal with the Palestinian issue. There is gridlock going on and it could last years unless a pragmatic leadership in Gaza and in Jerusalem comes to play. Unless Israel wants to further weaken Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' hand in the West Bank, the Israeli government must give him concessions.

Abbas is slowly becoming marginalized by being a accused of collaborating with the Israelis especially during the Gaza war. If concessions are not made and the status quo remains, the radical Hamas Movement may be able to extend its influence from Gaza to the West Bank. The Israelis need to understand that Abbas', Fatah, rule in the West Bank has kept peace in that part of the region and should make the West Bank and example of what peace could look like under its moderate leadership. To do this Israel must give up its settlements in the West Bank and make all of its land contiguous and open trade. When prosperity come to the West Bank, the Palestinians in Gaza may demand the same thing and demand a better government, which could lead to a victory of the moderates.

If this scenario does not come in to play the status quo may continue and lead to a victory Hamas. Many Israelis understand that demographically they cannot keep all of the settlements. Relinquishing in the future may play in the hands of Hamas and the forces of extremism.

2009-02-07T13:56:00.003-05:00

US Trained Ugandan Soldiers fail to Stop the LRA in Congo

The US has trained and aided the Ugandan Army for counterterrorism and to fight the rebel Lord Resistance Army(LRA). The US may have provided logistics for the Ugandan Army to dislodge the rebels from their camps in Congo. - New York Times The operation failed and the Rebels escaped by breaking up into smaller bands, where they attacked local villages, raping and pillaging them. These rag tag Rebels are one of the most brutish in all of Africa, has a history of kidnapping and raping , especially children, as well as enslaving them for their army. They want to toppled the government and creat a government based on the Ten Commandments. The failed offensive mentioned in this article reminds the world that this group needs to get stamped out, with a little more international cooperation, at the very least, their top leadership, led by Joseph Kony, can be taken out.

2009-01-29T22:28:00.002-05:00

Two Interesting Articles on Russia

This New York Times article explains Vladmir Putin's plan to rebuild Russia through energy resources. The Second piece examines press freedom in Russia in the wake of the daylight murder of Stanislav Markelov and journalist, Anastasia Baburova courtesy of Der Spiegel.

2009-01-19T20:28:00.002-05:00

Human Rights Lawyer and Journalist Gunned Down in Moscow

Stanislav Markelov a lawyer, who fought for human rights in Russia and a journalist with him were gunned down in broad daylight in central Moscow. The murder occurred after they left a press conference where he announced that he was going to continue to fight against the release of a a former army commander who killed a Chechen woman. Markelov has previously fought against army abuses committed in Chechnya and against neo-fascist groups and had worked with the slain journalist, Anna Politkovskaya. Anastasia Baburova a journalist who was with Markelov was killed worked for the Novaya Gazeta, a newspaper, that has often been critical of the government.- NY Times

2008-12-22T18:41:00.002-05:00

Dear Wealthy Americans,

As you guys probably know we are in a deep recession that may just be as bad as the Great Depression. Retail prices are dropping and the fears of deflation rising. In order to keep the economy from getting any worse we are told to spend, spend, spend. If we don't stop spending consumer prices will continue to go down and more jobs will be lost. Companies will become bankrupt and there will be more gloom. The problem is that the Middle Class can not afford to spend. We are piling up more and more debt that is not sustainable. Consumer debt over the last couple of years has exceeded disposable income. - Bloomberg

In this holiday season we need you to help ignite the economy. Buy clothes at a discount retailer or toys at a toy store and give it to the needy. Most of these things are tax deductible, whereas you will benefit not just your self but your fellow Americans. With our economic order slowly descending into a chaotic period, you need to step up and promote capitalism before the radical left gains ground. Your money is the best way to stop this cancer from spreading. Don't put money in the pockets of lobbyists and in political campaigns, invest in Mom and Pop. This is your patriotic duty. Happy Holidays!

Sincerely Your Fellow (middle class) American,

Max Sueter

2008-11-22T00:05:00.002-05:00

China's Cyber Warfare Program Grave Threat to US. NIC Report

A Congressional panel investigating the national security threat posed by China presented a report warning that China's cyberwarfare may have the capability to weaken the US' conventional military capabilities. They also accuse China of penetrating government and defense related companies computer networks. Al Jazeera

The National Intelligence Council released their annual report on "Global Trends 2025"
in it they discussed that US political and economic dominance is going to weaken and that countries like China and India will gain more of the political and economic pie. Also that the world may become more dangerous especially with the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and more competition for the world's resources.-Reuters

2008-10-23T22:19:00.002-04:00

Azerbaijan Walks Tightrope Between West, Russia

Azerbaijan a gas rich country that borders Russia and Iran finds itself in a tough spot after Russia's quick defeat of neighboring Georgia in August. The country has solidified its ties to the West over the past decade and is home to the Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan pipeline that provides gas to Europe without transiting through Russia. The West wants to build another pipeline that doesn't pass its nothern neigbor. Russia opposes that idea and wants Azerbaijan to sell them oil, which could end the hopes of another pipeline not passing through Russia. The effects of the Georgia-Russian war have negative consequences and could be lasting-NYTimes

2008-10-04T01:32:00.002-04:00

Explosion in S. Ossetia kills 7 Russian Soldiers.

7 Russian peacekeepers in the separatist Georgian region of South Ossetia were killed by a car bomb attack yesterday. The S. Ossetia President Eduard Kokoity quickly accused Georgia for this attack. According to the Russian Defense Ministry stopped two cars carrying weapons in an ethnic Georgian town. The people did not carry and documents and were taken into custody and brought to their headquarters and that was when the car bomb went off. This event occurs less than a week before Russia plans to withdrawl all of its remaining troops from Georgia, to be replaced by European Union peacekeepers. NYT

Due to the hostility between Georgia and Russia, it would not be too suprising for ethnic Georgians to be involved in the killing of Russian soldiers, but the timing is odd. The killing plays into Russia's hands and gives them an excuse for them to hold on to their positions within the Georgian border. It may not be the first time that elements of Russia's security apparatus killed Russians to reach strategic ends. In September of 1999 there were a string of apartment bombings in Moscow and in the Caucuses killing over a hundreds of people. The bombings re-ignited the Chechen War under Prime Minister Vladmir Putin's guidance. In one apartment bombing attempt in the city of Ryazan two members of Russia's domestic security service FSB, were caught attempting to blow the building up. Needless to say charges were dropped and the incident was more or less quieted. The FSB investigation concluded that Islamic radicals in Chechnya were behind the blast.- Wiki What gives credence to this theory is that many people who accused the FSB of involvement have been killed, including the famous poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in London.

This posting marks my 100th posting!

2008-09-12T18:26:00.003-04:00

Local Governments in Russia want to Handpick Juries

Trial by jury in Russia is now under threat. Moscow and other cities are calling for the authority to pick jury members, which would relinquish the independence of the judiciary. The pro-Kremlin mayor of Moscow Yuri Luzhkov, sent a letter to the lower house of the Russian Parliament asking for the power to select juries for trials. The Kremlin backed majority in the Parliament would most likely support the measure, although President Medvedev has said previously appreciated the Western style jury systems that have been put in place since 1993 after the collapse of the Soviet Union. -Breitbart

It would be no suprise to see the independent jury system die. Granting this authority will allow the Siloviki to convict all of its domestic enemies more easily. Russia under Vladimir Putin, has been eroding every liberal institution that the country has. This might be its last free bastion.

2008-08-31T17:57:00.002-04:00

Another Critic of Moscow Killed in Russia

An owner of a regional news website was shot and killed under police custody. Magomed Yevloyev a Russian journalist who was critical of the Kremlim-backed leader of the Russian republic of Ingushetia. The Russian government ordered the website to be closed in June due to ite"extremist" views.

2008-08-20T22:52:00.004-04:00

Syria Tries to Make Gains with Russia over Tension with the West.

Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad is in Moscow visiting its leaders and discussing the Middle East issues and biltateral relations AKI . Assad is going to take advantage of the current tensions between Russa and the West vis-a-vis Georgia. Syria has taken Russia's side over the conflict in the Causcuses and accuses the West of trying to "encircle" Russia. Russia has accused Israel of aiding Georgia and will use Syria to put pressure on them.

To agitate the West and Israel, Russia may give Syria a better arms deal perhaps, anti-aircraft missile systems in order to gain more leverage in the Middle East. Israel has fears that this conflict will hurt Israeli-Russian relations and Russia by increasing its leverage will only strengthen Israel's enemies. Iran is probably having a field day with this tension. It will certainly buy them more time with their nuclear program, although at the same time, Iran itself will have issues with Russia's increasing influence in its back yard, which itself would be a major threat to its regional interests and national security.

2008-08-11T00:24:00.006-04:00

The War Between Russian and Georgia: The Bigger Picture

Last week the conflict between the former Soviet Republic of Georgia and the separatists of South Ossetia escalated when Russia intervened to support the Separatists. Russia's pretext for the technical invasion of Georgia's sovereignty was that its peacekeepers in South Ossetia were attacked by Georgia. Georgia might have purposely attacked the peacekeepers because the support the separatists who are backed by Moscow. Russia has sent in over a 100 tanks and thousands of troops to back them and may have sent troops to Georgia's other pro-Russian separatist region of Abkhazia. As of this writing it is believed that Russia has control of most of South Ossetia and has bombed strategic locations throughout Georgia and its remaining stronghold in Abkhazia. This conflict has local and international implications. Firstly its a local conflict pitting Russia and the pro-Russian separatist regions of Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, against the Republic of Georgia. The conflict is also Russia versus the US/NATO/ West. Georgia is a pro-American country that has receieved military aid from Washington and has committed troops to Iraq.

Warning to NATO

The US has been calling for NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine, while other NATO members dismiss it fearing a harsh Russian response. Russia does not want to see anymore its neighbors join the Alliance. NATO itself does not want to get embroiled in a conflict with Russia. Georgia's problems with Russia are reasons enough for Georgia not to become a member.

The US is also trying to build a missile defense shield located in Europe to fend of a possible Iranian missile attack. Russia claims the missile shield would be used against them. In the past year Russia has escalated bellicose statements and sent its bombers to fly off the Atlantic coast like it did during the Soviet days. Russia does not think that the West takes it seriously and is now using Georgia to project its power.

Its the Oil Stupid

One of its ways to block NATO for supporting Georgia and Ukraine's acession was by playing the energy card. Russia supplies Europe with most of its oil, "disruptions" in supply in Russia or its pipelines could cause an economic crisis in Europe. Georgia holds an oil pipeline on its territory, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline. The oil comes from Azerbaijan and goes to Europe. This pipeline is the only pipeline in the region that does not go through Russia, which means that Russia does not have any benefits over it unless it oil stops flowing. If the oil stops flowing, oil prices will increase and the countries that benefit from this pipeline will face losses. This weekend the Russians bombed the pipeline but the bombs missed.- Daily Mail

Message to other Former Soviet Republics

Georgia is not the only former Soviet Republic with ethnic conflicts that have been exploited by Russia. Like Georgia, the Republic of Moldova has a pro-Russian separatist region. Trans-Dniester like South Ossetia has had de facto independence for years and is protected by Russian peacekeepers. In Azerbaijan the region of Nagorno Karabakh, has been site of an armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The region is ethnically Armenian. Russia supported Armenia in the conflict, which its been using as leverage with Azerbaijan and to keep its influence in the lower Caucuses near the oil pipelines. Heritage The Ukraine is a country that is divided by its pro-Russian East and its pro-Western West. The Orange Revolution has increased the polarization of the country. Russia has been meddling in Ukrainian affairs for a long time, it would not be difficult to provoke a new crisis. Russia's relationship with the Baltic nations has been very antagonistic especially now that they are a part of NATO and the EU. Russia has
accused them of discriminating against their Russian speaking minorities.

The Endgame

The war in against Georgia should be over in a very few days. Georgia and the international community has been calling for a ceasefire. Georgia promised to withdraw troops from S. Ossetia as demanded by Russia but Russia has continued its onslaught and created a second front in Abkhazia and might have invaded Georgia proper. Currently Georgia has restarted shelling from its positions. According to reports, Russia has moved close to the capital of Tbilisi. -AP Although there is still fighting in S. Ossetia, Russia largely controls both separatist regions, accomplishing what is believed to be the main goal in its offensive. It could also be said that it has taught Georgia a lesson.

If Russia's goal is to occupy Georgia it is not far away. Occupying Georgia is not going to make the international community comfortable and will hurt Russia's standing, especially if it tries to install its own government. Other neighboring countries may rethink of their relationship with Russia vis a vis the West. Russia by threatening to occupy Georgia may try to use its power to get a say in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline or even force Georgia to pay compensation. The result of this conflict could shed a new unfavorable light on Russia in the eyes of the West and could lead to less cooperation and more confrontation.

2008-08-01T22:20:00.007-04:00

US Policy Shifting on Iran: Talking

If an objective person where to compare the Middle East of a few months ago with the Middle East of the present they would notice some peaceful differences. In early May there was fighting in Sadr City between the Mahdi Army and US and Iraqi troops. In Beirut Hezbollah and its allies went on a rampage in and seized half of the Lebanese capital after the Pro West government tried to assert more state control of telephone lines and the airport. Gas prices skyrocketed. The US and Iran continued to amp up the rhetoric between them. Fast forward to the present. Baghdad is largely peaceful. The US is now thinking about withdrawing troops from Iraq to Afghanistan; Lebanese political factions signed the Doha Accord bringing the syro-Iranian backed oppostion in to the cabinet; gas prices are slowly falling. The US announced that they are bringing a senior level US diplomat to the nuclear negotiations with Iran. The State Department said that it would meet the Syrians if they were to request a meeting.- Yahoo This would not have been said publicly a few months ago. Something is changing in the Middle East. According to Debka, a subtle shift of policy has made the difference.

Convergence of Interests?

The Middle East has been relatively polarized between the West and its Arab allies the surrogates of Iran and Syria in a proxy war for hegemony. The violence in the middle east is sponsored by Iran in opposition to American allies. In the past month or so ceasefires were reached between March 14th(Pro West) Lebanese government and Hezbollah, Israel and Hamas, Prisoner exchange between Israel and Hezbollah, Al Sadr and the Iraqi government. Israel has also been trying to negotiate peace with Syria. All of these ceasefires and talks have been supported by Iran. Prior to these talks there was only political deadlock, mounting oil prices, and bile. Now there is just the normal tension and bellicose statements. Being election year here in America, Bush needs to find reasons for the Republican Party to win in November. Iraq has been inching towards a degree of stabilit Iran as been the stumbling block preventing it from happening. The war in Afghanistan is getting worse. Iranian and American interests converge on these issues. Iran does not like permanent instability along both of its borders. Iran always wanted US forces to leave Iraq and instead of the US taking out its proxies why not allow them to concentrate on Al Qaeda, which is one of the biggest killers of Shiites. A resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan is also menacing towards Iran, even though Iran might have aided the Taliban at some point in the passed few years. Iran is not afraid of Republican administrations and actually supported them; they Ronald Reagan over Jimmy Carter. In my view Republicans usually help them foster more anti-American sentiment which serves their base well. According to a few different news sources, the US is planning to open an interest section in Teheran. An interest section gives the US diplomatic presence in Iran that is roughly half the size of a full scale embassy. Currently the Swiss embassy house's the US interest section, which is run entirely by the Swiss. -Fars

The End of the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon?

The Debka article mentioned that the US withdrew its support of the "Syrian opposition factions". From an American perspective, supporting a strong Lebanese state may not be worth the investment. Lebanon is a very small country and strategically unimportant. Also this could mean that the Bush Administration is beginning to follow some of the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group. The Group led by former Bush 41 Secretary of State James A. Baker III called for the Adminstration to engage Syria. Under Baker's tenure as Secretary of State, the US allowed Syria to have control over Lebanon in order for Syria to support the US in the Gulf War.

The scenario does seem somewhat likely. After the fall of West Beirut to Iranian and Syrian factions, the March 14th coalition agreed to their demands by signing the Doha According, giving the opposition veto power in the cabinet and repealing govenment decisons that went against Hezbollah. Pro-government faction barely gave a fight in the brief conflict. The Accords did end the politcal stalemate albeit briefly. Since the Accord the coalition has not been as united. In an interview a few days ago Lebanese MP and leader of the Progessive Socialist Party, a critic of Syria and Hezbollah with very pro-Western views, sent a very sobering message, saying that the coalition needs to pay more attention to "Palestine and Arabism"- Daily Star These were Jumblatt's main concerns during the pre-Cedar Revolution era; it was most prominent during the Lebanese Civil War. The US allies in Lebanon have slowly been caving in to most of Syrian-Hezbollah's demands during the last year. The Ministerial statement that is just about to be released will have a reference the "resistance". In layman's terms the resistance is the name Hezbollah and other militants give themselves to justify their state within a state, that exists to "resist" Israel. The next parliamentary elections which take place next year will give us a full measurement to see if the Cedar Revolution has failed.

The Israeli Hezbollah prisoner swap may also support this trend. See my previous post. Israel legitimizes Hezbollah with this swap and previous swaps. Debka does not say that Israel has any involvement with US reapproachment with Iran. Although there are quite a few negatives there are a few positives to come out of the Lebanese developments. Firstly the seat of President has finally been filled after seven month vacancy and Syria last month announced their plan to finally build an embassy in Lebanon which should mean that Syria recognizes it's independence. Syria has been acting different during the last 6 months in ways that have been favorable to the US. For information on that see Olivier Guitta's column in the Middle East Times. To go along with that column, a Syrian general, who was allegedly Syria's liasion with Hezbollah, was gun downed over the weekend. Six months ago Imad Mughniyeh, one of Hezbollah's top leaders, who was one of the US' most wanted terrorists was killed in a car bomb in Damascus. - Daily Star

What Taking to Iran Could Spell Out

The Daily Star article mentioned above actually ties this piece together. The other day the Iranian Vice President told the reporters after meeting IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei "if the negotiations get under way, then solutions could be found for many problems like Iraq, Lebanon and fuel prices." It appears that the US understood that. Perhaps both parties are learning that the game of brinkmanship is not the best way to levy power in the Middle East. To bring an end to wars, states must negotiate a peace or bring about a ceasefire; they would have to talk. This is also true in wars by proxy.

2008-07-16T21:38:00.004-04:00

Israel Caving to Terrorism

The Israelis and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah swapped dead soldiers and prisoners today. The move was a victory for Hezbollah and is a blow to Israel despite their decision to support this deal. Israel received two dead soldiers who were ambushed on an Hezbollah attack on Israel that triggered the 2006 Summer War. Hezbollah and Lebanon received 5 militants and the remains of 199 Arab fighters. The 2006 Summer War was a stalemate, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah declared "Divine Victory" since the Israelis failed to destroy them. Hezbollah said that their raison d' etre for the kidnapping and ambushing of Israeli soldiers was done in order to put pressure on Israel to release Lebanese prisoners. Two years later Hezbollah's bid succeeded with the release of these prisoners and the remains of others.

Hezbollah has been put in an uncertain position after it took over much of Beirut last May. Now it appears very strong. The government declared today a national holiday and the militants received a heroes welcome. All political factions got on the nationalist bandwagon and thanked God for this.

Israel's excuse for giving up and receiving on retaining the sanctity of the Israeli Defense Force. The dignity that was returned will be exchanged once the next kidnapping occurs. Hamas is also going to capitalize. -AP

Today Israel is weaker, the Lebanese state along with its pro-Western leaders are only getting weaker as well. Syria and Iran are prevailing. One could wonder whether this deal has anything to do with peace process between Syria and Israel, a stronger Hezbollah could give Syria carte blanche to return to Lebanon. Regardless, it shows us how terrorism pays off. It reminds us that Israeli policies over the last sixty years have been counterproductive and only continues the cycle of violence that afflict the region.

2008-06-27T21:09:00.004-04:00

Pakistani Taliban Encircle Peshawar

The Pakistani Taliban have made significant gains against the demoralized Pakistani troops in the Northwest Frontier Province. Peshawar is the capital of the provice and has a population of almost 3 million inhabitants. They have taken control of the main roads outside of the city and can cut off communication. Police in the vicinity of town have given up patrolling the streets at night out of fear of attacks. Times Online

The Islamic militants have only gotten stronger due to the ineffectiveness of the Pakistani government. The government have been signing a series of peace agreements with the militants, which have only strengthen and expanded their reach. Their penetration into Peshawar in recent days shows that force is the only answer in combating Islamic militants.

Pakistani politicians and President Musharraf must come together and realize that this is a real war and that the future of the Pakistani State hangs in the balance. A new domino effect may occur if the US and Pakistan fail to work together. The US has to review its strategy in regards to Pakistan, since the current strategy is not working. What is happening here reminds American support for Fatah against Hamas in Gaza and the Warlords against the Islamic Courts in Somalia. In both cases our friends, the corrupt, secular forces were crushed by these Islamic Groups. I am sensing the same thing here, except this war will take a bit longer.

2008-06-24T23:27:00.003-04:00

Do Oil Companies Need More Drilling Rights in Gulf?

Congressional Democrats are asking why oil companies want more drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico and in other areas when they already have access to large untapped portions of the Gulf.
It is mentioned that The difference between these areas and the government protected areas is that the latter is in shallower waters, making it cheaper to drill. Regardless where to drill. Its not an easy operation. It takes years to explore for oil, the drilling, and making a pipeline also takes a lot of time. Equipment and skilled labor are also needed and there is already a shortage in supply. All of these things make it expensive and there is a possibility that there isn't a lot of oil.

The oil firms could be waiting to see if John McCain wins the presidential election since supports lifting the ban on drilling in the protected portions of the Gulf. CNN In the end, finding new places to drill is a timely affair and amount of oil still located in the gulf is pratically all speculation.

2008-06-24T20:44:00.002-04:00

Hi-Tech Brain Drain Causing Major Concerns in the Military

The US military is facing a shortage of engineers and other high skilled workers, who are needed to help construct new military projects. Building advanced weaponry and satellites among other projects are taking longer to get completed and many have been going billions over budget. A few reasons for this is that many young engineers get jobs with Google or Microsoft, jobs that are high paying. It does not help that the military, especially the airforce, have been facing budget cuts despite receiving billions of dollars for new weapon systems. This leads to inefficiency which can threaten our miliary technological superiority in the long term if not addressed soon. IHT

2008-06-21T14:03:00.003-04:00

A Strong Dollar only Short Term Remedy to Fight High Oil Prices

I am sure by now most people are tired of hearing and worrying about oil prices, too bad you finally get to hear about it now at the Dailycentre. Within the last week in the news, the Saudis agreed to increase output of oil to an extra 500,000 barrels per day. China decided to reduce the subsidies on oil prices after the G8 and other nations clamored China to raise oil prices closer to market rate in order to weaken demand. China probably decided to do this to empty out the roads in Beijing and to reduce pollution in time for the Summer Olympics.

In the US there has been intense discussion on whether or not the US should drill in the protected areas of the Arctic or in the Gulf of Mexico. The Bush administration has been asking for it for years to drill there. Republican presidential nominee John McCain also supports the drilling. Democratic candidate Barack Obama opposes that solution. Drilling in those places would in theory bring more oil to the American market once it reaches shore strengthening supply. Most democrats and people who oppose this idea believe the impact will be negligble, arguing that the gas in these locations could be gobbled up with in a few years. Tapping the oil will take years before it can be extracted. Depending on the views of experts and analysts, it could take a couple of years to others who say it could take more than ten years. Its impact in the end may just be marginal. These candidates do not have any short term solutions, besides of McCain's support for the 'Summer Tax Holiday' nothing is going to change energy prices.

The one thing that they should be talking about is a stronger dollar. A weak, cheap, dollar makes goods more expensive to the American consumer. A strong dollar would keep inflation and rising prices in check. Oil is traded in dollars, the weaker the dollar is in the global market the more expensive oil will most likely become. As of Friday the Euro sold $1.56 to the dollar in the currency markets making the dollar slightly weaker. Hedge fund managers and speculators are exchanging their depreciative dollars for commodities like oil which provide a currency hedge . Since the Federal Reserve first slashed interest rates in response to the housing bubble traders switched from the dollar to commodities. When they saw signs that the Fed might cut rates they left the dollar. Rasing the federal interest rates is the primary weapon the US government uses to fight inflation and it generally strengthens the dollar by decreasing the supply of dollars on the market. A stronger dollar should be able to reverse this trend and put some downward pressure on the price of oil.

In the case that the housing bubble doesn't peter out anytime soon, then it may be hard to strengthen the dollar by raising interest rates. The Federal Reserve might not be in a position to raise the rates. It could mean more economic problems for this country and around the globe.

If the subprime mortgage mess calms down soon and global economic growth slows down due to the price of commodities and the supply of oil stays consistent, then the price of oil should drop. Higher confidence in the dollar hopefully can lead to less speculating in the commodities market.

The strong dollar appears the only medium short term measure to fight high gas prices. In the long term there are a myriad of different things that can be done but are years away, gimmicks like the tax holiday or releasing gas from the strategic reserves would have negligble effects if any effects at all.

2008-05-31T12:57:00.003-04:00

China involved in US Blackouts?

According to some US intelligence officials, there is belief that China might have played a role in the black out in the Northeast a few years ago, as well as the blackout that affected South Florida. They said that Chinese hackers have hacked into utility companies abroad, and if they could do it elsewhere why not in the US. It is believed they managed to gain access to US power grids in 2003. The government has blamed over grown trees on the Northeast Blackout but government officials have not denied Chinese involvement. The results of the South Florida have not yet been released.

The PLA and other Chinese organizations have been attacking US computers for years. They frequently attempt to access the computers of American Corporations and government agencies. Americans have been warned not lose sight of their computers when visiting China, since they are known to sabotaging them. There is an investigation going on now in regards to the Commerce Secretary's recent visit to China, in which his computer might have been compromised. National Journal

The fact the China has the power to cause black outs in the US is of major concern. It could also enable them to shutdown our nuclear facilities as well. The threat posed by China is only going to get greater in the ensuing decades.

2008-05-16T00:26:00.003-04:00

Hezbollah's Take Over of Beirut is to Change American View of Lebanon

Hezbollah’s action in Lebanon over the past week, was Bashar Assad's message to the US that only Syria in Lebanon can restrain Hezbollah. The Syrians know that this is the view adhered by Israel and wants the US to also take that view. Syria knew that Bush would be in Israel while Israel celebrated its 60th year anniversary .Its no secret that the Syrians and Israelis have been holding peace talks in recent days. During these talks the Lebanon dossier has been discussed and of course Syria wants to strengthen its influence there. Israel does not have a problem with that. The US is the major stumbling block in that regard. Bush's policy is to try to keep Syria out of Lebanon. There is a possibility that the US is trying to stop the peace talks. Its prolly not a coincidence that the peace talks were going on when the Bush admininstration showed evidence that Syria was trying to build a nuclear weapons facility that was bombed by the Israelis. Since the operation was conducted by the Israelis it was strange that they were not a part of this presentation. According to Stratfor, the Israelis did not want the Bush Administration to present anything that would embarrass Syria. Assad probably thought it was time to ratchet it up pressure against the Pro-Western government in Lebanon and show that Hezbollah is the boss of Lebanon.

2008-05-11T15:35:00.004-04:00

Iranian MPs' Condemn Khatami's Remarks about Armed Force

Conservative hardliners in the Iranian Parliament condemned former president Mohammed Khatami's remarks at a university the other day. Khatami said the the founder of the Islamic Republic Ayotollah Khomeini, did not want to export the Islamic Revolution with armed force. The MPs accused Khatami of threatening national security and launched a complaint against him at the Intelligence Ministry. He spoke about this on friday when the Shite group Hezbollah seized control of half of Beirut, which may lead to civil war in Lebanon. The Sadrist militia in Iraq and Hamas in Gaza are other current examples of Iran influencing events in other countries. The former president denied that he was referring to Iranian foreign policy.

"Did he mean that we take up arms, that we blow up places in other nations
and we create groups to carry out sabotage in other countries? The Imam was
vehemently against this and was confronting it," BBC.

2008-04-22T21:16:00.003-04:00

Lax US Gun Laws aid Drug Gangs in Mexico

Around 90 percent of weapons used by Mexican drug lords are from the United States, according to US and Mexican authorities. Stringent gun laws in Mexico forces criminals to get guns from the US. Along the border with Mexico there are countless of gun shops, gun shops that sell high powered assault weapons including "cop killing" guns. The conflict between drug cartels and local governments has forced the Mexican Army to intervene. Without army involvment, the drug lords in many areas would have taken over some Mexican border towns, since their weapons are so powerful that they overwhelm the local police. ABCNews According to ABC's World News Tonight, Bush administration has promised to help efforts against gun smuggling with a 550 Million package to fight drugs. Unfortunately less than a million would be used for that purpose.

2008-04-22T20:58:00.002-04:00

American Accused of Spying for Israel

A former Army mechanical engineer was arrested today accused of giving classified documents to Israel back in the 1980s. Ben-Ami Kadish allegedly gave an Israeli official documents pertaining to nuclear weapons, the F-15 fighter jet and US Patriot missile defense system. The Israeli official whom Kadish shared information may be the same person that worked with the disgraced Jonathan Pollard who is currently spending life in prison for spying for Israel. With friends like these who needs enemies? NyTimes

2008-02-28T22:43:00.003-05:00

Cutting Interests Rates won't Stave off Recession.

The Federal Reserve under Chairman Ben Bernanke show signs that they might slash interests rates further in order to stave off recession. At a Senate Banking Committee session, he told the Senate that inflation will come down shortly and that cutting the interest rates will help prevent a recession from occurring. The economic slow down has been widely blamed on the mortgage crisis that appears far from abating. Reducing the interest rates will increase the supply of money in the economy and make loans cheaper, which in theory, could encourage job growth and increase consumer spending. IHT

The negative effect of lowering the rate is that it can lead to inflation. Inflation rate has reached the 7% margin making it the largest increase in inflation since 1982. Its been cause by the rise in demand in food, high oil prices, biofuel craze, etc. The weakness in the US dollar is another reason why the prices of consumer goods are more expensive. The dollar is down a $1.52 against the Euro. The dollar's buying power is lessening making the price of oil rise above $100 a barrel. This measure will not stop the dollar from depreciating, in fact it will most likely continue to depreciate. This means that American consumers will have to expect to may more. An increase in inflation is not going to help consumer confidence, which is a pivotal in stimulating the economy.

The Fed slashed interest rates to get us out of the 2001 recession and for the most part it succeeded, although it did lead us to the present mortgage crisis. Inflation was increasing during this time but it did not accelerate or threaten economic growth. The dollar was depreciating but not in the levels we have seen in the passed six months. The low interest rates at the time encouraged people to buy homes and banks handed out loans to consumers who in reality could not afford them. Credit card debt has also risen but credit card interests rates are not affected by the Fed's cuts. These cuts in rates may increase American's debt and not help them out of it.

Its quite a risk to cut rates with the rise in inflation. People may have to choose between foreclosure or bread on the table. It is only going to hurt our wallets and damage the economy further . Cutting interests rates is not the remedy to stave off recession. It may only worsen it.

2008-02-25T21:50:00.003-05:00

Did Syria Make a Deal with the Democrats?

On February 12, two major events occurred in the Syrian capital of Damascus. First, with little press coverage, Zibignew Brezinski Jimmy Carter's former National Security Advisor was visiting President Assad. He led a delegation from the think tank, RAND Corp, to Damascus. What is notable about Jimmy Carter's national security advisor is that he is also a foreign policy adviser to current Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama. That same delegation also includes Hassan Namazee, who is one of Hillary Clinton's foreign policy advisors- Debka. The other more prominent story, terror mastermind Imad Mughniyeh of Hezbollah was killed in a car bomb. Prior to 9/11 Mughniyeh was known as the terrorist who killed the most Americans.

Not much is known about what Brezinski said during his trip to Damascus but in the other side of town not much was known how Hezbollah terrorist mastermind Imad Mughniyeh was killed in a car bomb. Hezbollah and Syria quickly blamed Israel, suprisingly, Mughniyeh's widow blamed Syria for the assassination-aki Its also strange how Syrian authorities have not allowed Hezbollah or Iranian investigators to investigte the scene.

The assassination might have been a gift to the Democratic presidential candidates to show Obama and Clinton that Assad would work with them if one of them became president. It illustrates the fact that Assad could give away some of his precious assets in order to negotiate with the US. It would be interesting to see what Brezinski said to Assad and if a deal would be made to renew relations with Syria once the next president reaches office.

2008-01-15T22:12:00.000-05:00

Ethanol No Better than Oil Part 1: Inflation

Western Countries have been clamoring OPEC to increase the production of oil to prevent a rise in inflation and the stalling of the global economy. The US and other countries have been trying a myriad of different ways to cut its oil use. Ethanol was the US' response to the rise of the price of oil. It was argued that it can be produced domestically very easily and that it is more environmentally friendly. Corn ethanol would help the US economy since there usually is a surplus of corn produced in the country.

Ethanol is a biofuel that is produced from corn in the US, Brazil produces ethanol with sugar cane. Ethanol and similar biofuels are not the savior from the oil crisis. Gas prices alone are not causing the rise of inflation, ethanol is a major contributing factor. The prices of most staple food items, wheat and corn, have been on a rise in recent months.

Corn is the US' biggest export; it now produces more corn for ethanol than its sells abroad. According to the Economist "America's ethanol program accounts to over half of the worlds unmet need of cereals". The grain needed to fill up a SUV through ethanol is enough grain to feed a person for a year! Bushels of wheat rose to $400 a ton in September up $200 since May. Corn prices are at a world record of $175 a ton, which is over 50% more then the price of corn in 2006. The rise in prices in corn and wheat have made farmers to put more of the land for corn and wheat uses, replacing other food crops. US government subsidies have stimulated this current dilemma by encouraging the production of ethanol, which was already blossoming. The subisidies include tariffs on foreign produced ethanol

The biggest factor is that the production of corn and wheat has declined outside of the sphere of bio-energy. Wheat, soy, and other crops have been cleared away by farmers who turn to corn. Many farmers in the US have now harvested their corn for ethanol purposes and not for human consumption. Other farmers stopped harvesting other crops for the same purpose, weakening the food supply and increasing demand of other food items. Meat prices are rising because corn and wheat are needed for animal feed. The supply of these agricultural products is not keeping up with demand. Hops and barley the key ingredients in beer are also in high demand, forcing you to pay an extra dollar for that six pack of suds at the liquor store. All courtesy of corn ethanol production. With the subprime crisis still in full swing, do not expect the US economy to make much gains any time soon.

Also Internationally speaking, US corn ethanol, has made it more expensive for the US government to buy food for international humanitarian aid. Corn prices due it the rise in demand has made it more costly to send this type of humanitarian aid to Third World countries. The US has spent less than half of the amount for food aid last year than it spent on food aid in 2000. The hungry poor's woes are only get worse as food becomes more expensive. Other governments are going get less bang for their buck as well, when they purchase food for humanitarian aid. NY Times

Stay tuned for Part II: Ethanol's impact on the Environment

2008-01-14T22:25:00.000-05:00

Chavez Publicly Reveals his Support for FARC

On Friday during his state of the union address, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, called on Europe to take FARC (the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) off their terror lists. He explained that FARC is merely an insurgent group, who has clear objectives and that is to follow through with a "Bolivarian (socialist) project" FARC has been a major drug traffiking and kidnapping force, while it has been fighting the Colombian government for over forty years and has never proven that it deserves any respect -CNN

2007-12-28T16:30:00.000-05:00

Pakistan on the Precipice

Yesterday's assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto has created shockwaves all over Pakistan and the world. Her assassination should not be too surprising, since Pakistan is a hotbead of Islamic fanaticism and political intrigue. Like Lebanon, nothing seems to get solved. When the former Prime Minister returned to Pakistan in October, there was an attempt on her life while she was parading in Karachi. The suicide bombing failed to kill her but killed over a hundred civilians. Even on Wednesday, the day before she was assassinated, she held a rally where, a fifteen year old was arrested carrying a bomb trying to sneak in to her rally. Islamic Fundamentalists from Al Qaeda and the Taliban have threatened her in the past. Pakistani military hardliners also despised her for attempting to weaken the military's hold of the government.

Her supporters in the People's Party, sadly took the streets in violent protests over the assassination, accusing the government of President Musharraf of not doing enough to secure her. Although Musharraf and Bhutto were political rivals, Musharraf needed Bhutto's political party to compete in the upcoming elections so the elections would look legitimate. Now the elections are in disarray. Nawaz Sharif another former Prime Minister and leader of the Muslim League is already planning to boycott the elections.

Al Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban are benefiting the most from this turmoil, now that the main secular camps are fighting each other. The government has not been making it easy for itself either by fueling suspicions that it has been covering up her assassination by taking over the crime scene, preventing and independent investigation and coming up with answers that the public let alone the witnesses, did not corroborate.

The situation in Pakistan is becoming increasingly unstable. On Sunday Benazir's son will read out her final wishes, which hopefully will calm the tensions down. Regardless of what happens, there will be continued infighting between the military regime and the moderately liberal opposition. Expect the Islamic Fundamentalists to capitalize and expands its base closer to the heart of Pakistan.

2007-12-12T00:10:00.000-05:00

Neo-Con for the White House: Rudy Giuliani

This edition of the Daily Centre focus on the Campaign 2008 and the possible foreign policy implications of having former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani as President and what type of foreign policy we would expect to see if he were to win the general election. Currently he leads the Republican polls. According to the New York Times he may be very much a hawk of the neo-conservative variety. His foreign policy team consists of quite a few neo-cons who advocate racial profiling, the bombardment of Iran, and ending the ban on assassinations.

One of his chief advisors, Charles Hill signed a letter to Bush right after 9/11 calling for the removal of Saddam irregardless of its involvement with the 9/11 attacks. Giuliani subscribes to the belief that "weakness invites attack" and that America must project its power and use it in order to meet its interest. The Bush administration has also subscribed that theory. Iraq was an example of its usage. By doing so the Administration, ended up showing unprecedented weakness, with the failure to solve Iraq and Afghanistan,the tense situation in Pakistan, the weak US economy, and also bad diplomacy. The War on terror is in a precarious position. The power projection has only emboldened the terrorists and their sponsors. The war is can not be won militarily. Bloating the defense budget is not going to strengthen those cards. Supporting Israel blindly is not going to bring peace in the Middle East either. With his advisors, and his own statements over the years, Giuliani may show that the neo-conservative movement is not dead.

2007-12-01T00:35:00.000-05:00

Losing Lebanon in Annapolis

After last Saturday's failed election to elect Lebanon's next President, the political crisis escalated leaving little room for the Pro-Western government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora to maneuver. On Tuesday in Annapolis the US held a summit with Arab and Israeli leaders to help solve the Arab Israeli conflict. Syria was invited by the US while they snubbed Iran. On wednesday the Pro-Western Lebanese factions took an about face and supported the candidacy of Gen. Michel Suleiman for President.

The issue in the piece is the candidacy of Gen. Suleiman and what it means to the Lebanese Nationalists of the Cedar Revolution. The Cedar Revolution occurred after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. It triggered mass protests and forced Syria to withdraw its military from Lebanon. A few months ago when the idea of nominating Suleiman for President was first floated, it was rejected by the ruling "March 14" coalition, soundly. For the General to become President would mean that the Lebanese Constitution would have to be amended. The Constitution stipulates that the President cannot be a person who is currently in the military and if he was he would have to be out of the military for at least two years. Then this week they suddenly agreed to the nomination. March 14 previously expressed its reservations, discreetly accusing him of having close ties to Syria but mainly playing the constitution as a card. Michel Suleiman does have close ties to Syria; his brother in law was former Syrian President Hafez Assad's spokesman, Gebran Kuriyyeh. He was also selected as Army Commander under Syrian domination and by former President Emile Lahoud MEIB. He is also known in some circles to be pro-Hezbollah. His election as President would continue to stonewall the March 14th coalition until the next elections. During the next parliamentary elections for there to be a victor, the victor would have to garner the support of the Pro-Syrian-Iranian Shia parties of Amal and Hezbollah. These powerful parties on their own have already proven that they can stop any pro-American agenda.

In regards to the Annapolis summit, this event might have been the catalyst for the turn around in Lebanon. Some people have come to the opinion that in order for the US to isolate Iran they needed Syria to attend. Publicly the US said that they managed to get Syria to appear because the issue of the Golan Heights would be highlighted. Due to the Presidential crisis in Lebanon, induced by Syria, this issue would almost have to come up as well. A compromised might have well been in order UPI. Suleiman might have appeared alright to the US since he never openly to got in the way of Pro-Western government. The US has sold Lebanon once back in 1990 in order to extract concessions from Syria(Support for the Gulf War) it might gently do it again this time over the Iranian dossier.

According to the Israeli perspective, it was the Saudis who compromised with Syria during the meetings. It was the Saudi Foreign Minister and the Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister who met while Bush was meeting Israeli Prime Minster Olmert. The Saudis along with the US and France are the main backers of the March 14th coalition. The Saudis and Syrians at the very least have common ground with their loathe of Israel.

At this point the March 14th coalition maybe seeing its last days as a force of hope and change in Lebanon. Iran, Syria and Hezbollah will have the last laugh. Lebanon's future has never seen dimmer. Civil war might have been averted in the short term, but sadly it may just cloud it's future.

2007-11-05T21:26:00.000-05:00

AIPAC More than a Pro-Israeli Lobby?

A Federal judge last friday approved of subpoenas for Condi Rice, and a few other Bush administration officials in a case where AIPAC officials national security information and passed it to Israel and the press.

AIPAC, the American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee, is known as the most powerful lobby in Washington. Two officials from the organization are accused of conspiring with a Pentagon analyst to transmit government intelligence to outside sources. The interesting thing about this case is the argument that the defense uses. They said that the witnesses would show that their acts are just part of the practice of "back channeling" to advance US foreign policy goals. They also say that the US government regularly gives them sensitive information with the expectation that it would be shared with foreign government officials. The foreign government would be Israel. AP

Its disturbing to see that an American lobbying organization may serve as a conduit for a foreign power. Its no suprise that many people feel that AIPAC serves the interest of Israel more than the interests of the US. The US does not have to use lobbyists to relay information

2007-10-24T23:40:00.000-04:00

What about China?

The headlines in regards to Iran in recent days has been primarily focused on Russia. President Vladmir Putin recently made a historic visit to Iran to talk about nuclear plans, the Caspian Sea, among other mutual concerns. While some people were alarmed by the meetings many in the West still believe a deal can be made with Russia despite its nuclear relationship with Iran. It is believed that the US can try to cajole Russia to take a harder line with Iran at the Security Council. Russia on the outside appears to have friendly relations with Iran; but Russia does not want a regional hegemon at its doorstep, especially a nuclear one. US's Iranian policy is currently based on global economic sanctions. If the sanctions fail, it would most likely lead to war. The sanctions regime has been working but the US knows that the noose needs to be tighten. Russia could help it but at the same time will continue to be reluctant, in order to extract more concessions from the US. If the US succeeds with getting Russia on the table, the problem still won't be solved. China could always veto any UN resolution demanding more sanctions.

China's relationship with Iran is very close and they have access to Iranian oilfields . Iran is the 2nd largest supplier of oil to China -Washington Post China is the 4th largest economy and growing and its blossoming trade with Iran will be the major stumbling block that will ultimately restrict the complete tightening of the noose. Cajoling China will be a bit harder then with Russia.

Update The Washington Post reported yesterday on the issue of sanctions against Iran and how Iran is beginning to circumvent them due to increase in trade with China, and utilizing Asian banks and finding other economic opportunites away from the West. If the US cannot convince the world that Iran's nuclear ambitions is a threat than a war will be looming.

2007-10-24T21:30:00.000-04:00

Russia Attempts to Block Election Monitors

Russia is trying to prevent OSCE election monitors from being able to publicly report electoral irregularities soon after an election. They are also trying to limit the size and scope of these missions. Russian parliamentary elections take place in five weeks and the Kremlin has not allowed monitors in to the country. It takes months for election monitors to prepare for the elections in order to observe well. International Herald Tribune ... the slide to authoritarianism and autocracy in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States continues.

2007-10-19T21:43:00.000-04:00

Economic Report The current State of the economy

The IMF predicted that China is going to "pump" more money in the global economy then the US next year. Economic forecasts prognoticate that China economic growth is going to reach 10%. The US economic growth is predicted to stagger with only 1.9% growth. China has already replaced the UK as the 4th biggest economy.

The Credit crunch in the US is not just dragging the American economy but also effecting banks in other countries that have lended to American banks and hurting other markets. Cuts in interests rates maybe be helpful but would be hard to stem off an increase in inflation , with oil prices reaching 90$ a barrel. Food prices have also been on a rise do to an increase in demand, poor harvests, global warming and the use of biofuels. -Telegraph The use of corn ethanol as a "savior" to our energy needs we be lamented in a future post.

The issue with China is not a concern in this piece. The economic slow down caused by this credit cruch is a real concern. The aforementioned inflation is a problem and a recession appears to be looming. Stay Tuned

2007-10-14T15:25:00.000-04:00

US Policy in Kurdistan Encouraging Stronger Relations between Iran and Turkey?

American policy in Iraq in in recent months have been about containing Iran and fighting al Qaeda . In recent days al Qaeda has been on the defensive. Its policy in containing Iran has been weakening due to its failure in mitigating Kurdish based terrorism. The Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) is terrorist group fighting for independence in neighboring Turkey. There has been a recent spate of attacks in Turkey requiring the Turkish goverment to take decisive action. The PKK has a lot of support in Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey has threatened to invade it to chase after the PKK. Iran which also has a restive Kurdish minority has also been attacked by Kurdish groups, PJAK, is the most important group. The Iranian government has already admitted shelling Iraqi Kurdistan along its borders. The US for the most part has been, pretty despondent over the issue. The US has been telling Turkey that the PKK would be dealt with but have failed to do so at this point and the PKK has been stepping up its attacks. At a time of confrontation between the US and Iran, the US needs to play a constructive role in fighting the PKK to prevent the convergence of interests between Ankara and Tehran. Unfortunately this has not happened. The issue over Armenia in Congress also is not helping Turkish American relations but that is a separate issue. Turkey and Iran share a lot of common interests that will prevent our Nato ally from isolating them.

In regards to Iranian Kurdish Separatists and PJAK who are based in Iraq, the US needs to use them as proxies against Iran. An Iranian invasion in Kurdistan could be perfect way to have someone to fight them. Turkish involvement would jeopardize this option. The US with Kurdish help need to silence the PKK before Turkey and Iran take matters in their own hands. Turkey's role in the Middle East could become an obstacle to our policies in the region if we do not listen to their concerns seriously. See Debka and crossfire war.com for more information.

2007-09-03T23:55:00.001-04:00

China's military hacked into Pentagon computers in June

The Pentagon acknowledge that their computer system was attacked in June affecting even Defense Secretary Robert Gates computer. Officials have told the Financial Times that it most likely came from the Peoples Liberation Army.

Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, raised this issue to Wen Jiabao, China's Premier, after its government computers were attacked. The Premier denied the accusations. It raises important concerns for the US showing that they can get hit pretty hard during crucial times. The PLA has been known to frequently attack the Defense Department and other important security related organizations but the attacks have become more and more sophisticated. The attacks have been becoming more and more sophisticated. There is “no doubt” that China was now monitoring email traffic on unclassified government networks." FT There are red flags everywhere.

2007-08-24T21:25:00.000-04:00

Russian Tycoon's Son Dies in Mysterious Car Accident

The son of Russian billionaire Mikhail Gutseriyev, died in a mysterious car accident says his family. Mikhail Gutseriyev who formerly headed the oil firm Russneft, left the company under government pressure to sell it to a Kremlin backed oligarch. The Russian goverment has accused him of tax evasion, and illegal business activities. In regards to selling the firm he accused the government of " unprecedented bullying". Later he rescinded that statement and said he was glad to sell it. The Russian newspaper Kommersant asked Moscow authorities about the crash but they had no records of a crash occurring.- Al Jazeera

It appears another mysterious accident faced a person who did not have a strong relationship with Putin's Kremlin. Russia seems to have quite a history of mysterious accidents in regards to people who did not agree with goverment policies, especially in Putin's Russia.

2007-08-18T13:16:00.000-04:00

Accused Nurses in Libya were Tortured

Five Bulgarian nurse and a Palestinian doctor, who were convicted of infecting children with AIDS, were tortured under Libyan custody according to Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, son of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi. The nurses were supposed to face the death penalty but had their sentence commuted to life in prison. Due to international pressure the Libyan government sent them back to Bulgaria to finish out their sentences there. The nurses said that Libya extracted their confessions under torture and that they were innocent of any crime.- Jurist Law The Bulgarian government subsequently pardoned them.

Seif al-Islam said that there confessions were not done in a scientific or professional manner and that the case "amounted to blackmail vis-a-vis the Europeans." He also said it was an immoral game where the Europeans set the rules and use this card to advance their own interests back home- Al Jazeera

In an interview with Al -Jazeera he supported their claims of innocents, but the courts relied on documents that implicated their guilt.

2007-07-07T15:39:00.000-04:00

War in Lebanon after July 15th?

On Thursday it was reported in the press that Syria has ordered all of its citizens in Lebanon to return to Syria by July 15th. Syrian students studying in Lebanon would be able to take classes back in Syrian universities. Syrian authorities took this move due to the lack of stability in Lebanon. MEMRI

Usually when countries warn there citizens to leave it is either due to terrorism or the outbreak of a war. Lebanon has not been the most stable of countries in recent years. It seems a little surprising that they take this step now. Lebanon has been polarized by sharp divisions between the anti-Syrian government and the pro-Syrian opposition. Syria which had occupied Lebanon for almost 25 years, withdrew its troops in April 2005 after popular protests. The ruling coalition accuses Syria of trying to destabilize the country by assassinating its politicians and by using its allies to try to bring down the government. The conflict between the Lebanese Army and Fatah al Islam extremists at the Nahr al Bared refugee camp is believed to have been instigated under Syrian orders.

Politically, the situation is getting more and more volatile. President Emile Lahoud’s term expires in September. Due to the constant bickering between the government and the opposition, a new president would most likely not get picked. There are already talks that the pro-Syrian opposition may form a second government if both sides fail to agree on a candidate. If the Opposition does form a second government then it could lead to a civil war.

Recently when major events occur in Lebanon, it happens when Syria or Iran are in the hot seat. The Summer War instigated by staunchly pro-Syria and pro-Iran Hezbollah occurred when Iran had to face the UN Security Council over its nuclear dossier. The attacks by Fatah al Islam occurred after the UN agreed to create a tribunal to try Rafik Hariri’s assassins’. The ruling coalition believes that Syria was behind the assassination of the former Lebanese prime minister. On July 16th, the UN is going to discuss UN resolution 1701, which ended the Summer War. It may recommend that the Syrian-Lebanese border needs to be monitored, which Syria doesn’t like among other recommendations. During that time, the investigators in the Hariri assassination are to submit another report to the Security Council.

Syrian President Bashar Assad has warned UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon that Lebanon would become destablized if the UN formed the Hariri tribunal and had reportedly threatened Lebanese leaders in the past. Some of the allegations were mentioned in the first UN report on the Hariri investigation.

Many people in the Middle East believe that they are in for another hot summer. To allay fears, Israel has told Syria that they have no plans to start another war. Despite that, Syria still likes to instill fear in the public that Israel is plotting war. After the triumph of Hamas in Gaza, Iran and Syria may feel more emboldened to plot one and use its proxies to carry it out. Beware of the ides of July.

2007-07-02T00:47:00.000-04:00

The Justification of the use of Sadism by Islamic Extremists

The horrific acts caused by Al Qaeda in Iraq and the violence that Hamas used in its seizure of the Gaza Strip has its own religious justification. The Global Islamic Media Front (Al Qaeda's media organization) explains why all pure Muslims must follow their example. It tells the reader that

A quick review of some Koranic verses [will help us] characterize [the concept of] cruelty in battle, so that the Muslims understand the truth about this matter and [realize] what is missing from their [school] curricula, sermons and religion courses. The [Muslim] nation must urgently familiarize itself with these military aspects of the Koran, so that it can deal with its enemies and fight [them]... in the way prescribed by Allah in order to grant [the nation] victory. After the great battle of Badr, Allah told the Prophet [Muhammad]...: 'It is not for any prophet to have captives until he hath made slaughter in the land. You desire the frail goods of this world, while Allah desires [for you] the hereafter; and Allah is Mighty and Wise [Koran 8:67]'... The word 'prophet' in this verse appears in the indefinite form, which means that [all] the prophets used to kill many of their enemies by the sword rather than take them captive... Allah says this explicitly [in the following verse]: 'So when you meet the infidels in battle, then cut off their heads, and after you have killed many of them by the sword, place [them] in shackles, and afterwards either set them free if you choose or let them ransom [themselves] until the war ends [Koran 47:4]'... 'Remember thy Lord inspired the angels [with the message]: I am with you. Give firmness to the Believers, [and] I will instill terror into the hearts of the Unbelievers. You cut off their heads and smite all their fingers off them [Koran 8:12]' -Sheikh Hussein bin Mahmoud
The article is very disturbing but gives you and understanding of how these people think. For the complete article go to MEMRI.

2007-07-02T00:36:00.000-04:00

Russia Continues its Cyber War againsts its Opponents

The Kremlin once again has been accused by its enemies of launching cyber attacks againsts its critics in cyberspace. The web is the only accessbile media that so far has not been tamed by the Russian government. Many major Russian opposition parties' websites have been knocked out of services and have faced other forms of harassment online. It comes in a time not long before the next Parliamentary elections which place in December. Yahoo I would also like to note that the website Moscow News linked on this site has been mysteriously offline for the past month.

2007-06-13T23:23:00.000-04:00

'Hamastan' Being Formed in Gaza

The militant Islamic group Hamas has taken control of 80% of the Gaza Strip this week. Hamas whose political wing won the Palestinian elections last year by defeating the secular, but corrupt, Fatah Movement, which previously had a monopoly over the government. Most of the world boycotted the Hamas led regime because it refused to abide by the Oslo accords and recognize Israel. Since the elections the US and allies have tried hard to curtail its power up to a point to encourage civil war between Fatah and Hamas. In fact both US and Israel were giving weapons to Fatah in order to weaken Hamas. In Gaza for the past several months there had been low instensity war going between them. This week Hamas is appearing victorious by seizing control most of the Strip. -Debka

US and Israeli policy in the Palestinian Territories have been a complete disaster. Firstly the US encouraged Palestinian democracy as the way to deter terrorism but failed to recognize that Fatah has been marred by corruption and ineptitude for over a decade. Hamas deserved a chance to be forced to moderate by the electorate if it wanted to win the next elections. The US and Israel did not give it a chance and increased its radicalization and is now radicalizing the previously pro-Fatah groups who are joining Hamas. By encouraging Fatah and this war it is not only destroying democracy, but facilitating the creation of an Iranian backed "Hamastan".

Finally, the US has top be careful, who it supports. Last year the US supported corrupt gangster warlords in Somalia and saw them fall to the Islamic Courts. Muslims in war torn countries want peace and security and an end to corruption. The Taliban rose to power b/c it provided all of that. The same with the Islamic Courts in Somalia. Gaza which has become a hellhole of the previous few years want the same thing. They elected Hamas to end the corruption of Fatah by holding them accountable during the election. At this point the people will want Hamas to also provide peace and security as well. Fatah will just become history in the sad story of Gaza.

2007-06-13T13:26:00.000-04:00

Another Lebanese MP Assassinated

Walid Eido, a parliamentarian from the anti-Syrian Future Movement, whose coalition has a majority in the Parliament, was assassinated in a major car bombing in beirut. He is the second anti-Syrian politician killed since the assassination of MP and Industry Minister, Pierre Gemayel in November. This bombing occurred after Fatah al Islam's leader threatened to kill Lebanese politicians. The politicians that were threatened were all of the anti-Syrian variety. The bombing killed Eido's sons bodyguards and a few pedestrians. - Al Jazeera

The Lebanese Parliament now has 126 members of parliament out of 128 seats. President Emile Lahoud refused to sign any bills with the current government whom he accuses of being illegitimate, and has prevented the appointment of Gemayel's successor. It would be fair to say that Lahoud would do it again. The day that Gemayel was assassinated, the office of Michel Pharaon, the Minister for Parliamentary affairs, had his office riddled by bullets. If he was assassinated, it would bring down the pro-Western government. The ruling coalition, when it was elected back in 2005 had 72 seats in the 128 seat parliament. Since then they have lost four members, two from assassinations, one from natural causes, and one Alawite MP(Lebanese government is a confessional based), who left the coalition last week. In a few months the Parliament gets to pick a new president, but if the anti-Syrian coalition loses four more seats then they would lose the majority and will be unable to pick a successor to the pro-Syrian Lahoud. The blog Across the Bay explains it very well.

The situation in Lebanon has gotten more and more tense since the passing of the Hariri Tribunal at the UN Security Council. Syria has warned the Security Council that the Tribunal would destablize Lebanon. The recent Syria inspired violence, along with Iran's hostile actions in Iraq and Afghanistan against American interests has put the US in a precarious position. Iran and Syria have declared open war against the US all over the Middle East. The US must figure out away to put a halt to this. Syria's support for terrorism has only increased since 9/11. Personally, I think diplomatic relations should be broken in protests of Assad's blatant tyranny and the regime should be strangled with a whole range of sanctions.

2007-06-05T02:03:00.000-04:00

The Destablization of Lebanon has begun

The outbreak of Islamist violence in the Palestinian refugee camp in Nahr al-Bared in Northern Lebanon and now in Ain al-Hilweh in the South has been created to break the fledgling Lebanese Army. The violence started at the Nahr al Bared camp in Tripoli happened almost concurrently with the UN Security Council's passage of the creation of the Rafik Hariri tribunal to try the killers of the former Prime Minister of Lebanon. Syria warned the Security Council that Lebanon would be destablized if the resolution passed. Syria has been accused of being behind the assassination.

The Islamic militants of Fatah al Islam that are based in Nahr al Bared are an offshoot of Fatah al Intifadah a pro-Syrian Palestinian group. Its leader Sheik Abbsi spent three years in a Syrian jail until he was mysteriously released and moved to Tripoli. Syria usually keeps Islamic fundamentalists in jail for much longer terms. In regards to its coziness with Syria, Fatah al Islam military leader, Abu Hurieira, mentioned in an interview that they are friendly with the pro-Syrian Shiite group Hezbollah despite it being Shiite. He even mentioned that they will not be attacked unlike the Christians and other sects-MEMRI There have been opinion pieces in the counterterrorism blog and other websites that predicted Ain al Hilweh refugee camp was going to be the next hotspot. Ain al Hilweh is a Palestinian camp that is a hornets nest for Islamic extremists and other militias that are loyal to Syria. The flare up in the South is to make the army stretched thin renderring them incapable of responding to other potential crises. Many people who support the Pro-Western government of Foaud Saniora fear that if the army can't solve these problems, Syria will use its well armed allies in the Lebanese opposition, to restore its hegemony of the country.

There is a possibility that violence may spread to other Palestinian refugee camps. Terrorism has increased in Beirut and other areas. Expect some more tragic events in the coming days...stay tuned

2007-05-16T21:00:00.000-04:00

Russia Accused of Cyber Warfare

According to the Guardian ,Russia may be involved in the cyber attacks against Estonia's government. The attacks occurred after the Estonian government removed a controversial Soviet Army statue in the capital Talinn. The removal of the statue sparked protests by Estonia's large Russian minority. The Russian government condemned the removal. Relations between Estonia and Russia have been testy for quite a few years. Since the protests, Estonia's government websites, news sites, political parties, banks and other organizations have been knocked offline. The websites were knocked down by a bombardment of viewers viewing the sites. The attacks for the most part were from abroad. At one stage most of the IP addresses of the attackers appear to have come Russian governmental institutions. Most of the attacks occurred during a few Russian holidays that celebrated the end of WWII and another time occurred after Russian President Putin delivered a jab at Estonia in a speech, where he also attacked Bush comparing his administration to the Nazis.

2007-05-09T13:32:00.000-04:00

Oil Victory in Iraq

While many people in the US think that Iraq is a failure, the oil firms in the US maybe thinking otherwise. According to an Iraqi draft law in its Parliament, the law would allow US oil companies to control the oil industry in Iraq. The law also proposes that the Iraqi provinces should be given responsibility over oil contracts and exploratation in their provinces. If this law passes, then it would give credence to the theory that the US was in Iraq for its oil to benefit big oil. Regarding provincial privileges, it would further the bloodshed in Iraq and may lead to the division of the entire country. This law would benefit no one. It is doubtful that the US consumer would benefit if our oil firms have a lot of power there. They have already benefited handsomely, whether its Haliburton, Chevron, or Exxon. The law would continue to incite instability and increasing anti-American (imperialists) sentiment. Oil prices also will not drop.- Al Jazeera

2007-04-29T18:40:00.000-04:00

The US needs to End its Support for Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf

The War on terror is reaching a critical stage in 2007. Iraq is continuing to be a major mess, the Taliban is resurging in Afghanistan, and our key allies never seem to be on the same page. A few of our most important allies, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, represent some of our greatest failings. Saudi Arabia is quick to arrest "terrorists" at home but export extremism abroad. Pakistan after breaking its ties to the Taliban, in order to support the War on Terror, is subtley restoring its relationship to the Taliban and inadvertently furthering its extremist agenda to encompass not just Afghanistan but Pakistan proper.

President Musharraf's government had contributed to many successes on the war against al Qaeda but failed to capture Bin Laden or Al Zawahiri ,who are believed to be located in the tribal provinces of Pakistan that border Afghanistan, the Northwest Frontier Province and or Waziristan. The tribal regions are very conservative and are pretty lawless with little government control. Pakistani forces have entered it but were repulsed and signed a ceasefire last year. Musharraf's government has failed on many different occasions to stop the spread of Islamic extremism and has often acquiesced to their demands like last week when the government agreed to the demands of the hardline clerics of the Lal Masjid Mosque, who are seeking to impose Sharia law in Islamabad. This is a critical period for Musharraf, who has promised to hold elections this year. If Musharraf is to leave his office it should be at this time.

General Musharraf receives most of his support from the military and religious parties and used both groups to marginalized the mainstream parties of Benazir Bhutto's secular, People's Party and the Muslim League, led by Nawaz Sharif. With his support, Islamic radicals continued the proxy war against India by destablizing Kashmir. The Pakistani military and the Pakistani Intelligence helped create the Taliban in order to create a friendly government in Afghanistan that would help build an oil pipeline that would leave Pakistani ports for export. Supporting the US after 9/11 forced them to change temporarily their policy regarding Afghanistan. Since most of the Taliban fled to Pakistan and has the support by much of the people in the border regions, the Pakistani government made a reversal of its policy and concluded that the Afghan government of Hamid Karzai, which is pro-Indian, is not going to last. There has been many reports that the ISI (Pakistani Intelligence) has been actively recruiting jihadis to fight Nato in Afghanistan. -New Statesman

The rising Islamization of Pakistan is a direct threat to the West and President Musharraf's weakness or acqiescence to it is a liability. The US and the UK must start quietly back the mainly secular democratic opposition in the name of democracy and weaken his influence. In recent days there has been huge demonstrations protesting the Talibanization of the country in Karachi and Lahore. People have also been protesting the sacking of a Chief Justice through unconstitutional means causing an uproar in the law community. It is believed that he was sacked because he may challenge the legality of the coming elections to the Supreme Court. There were also rumors that he was investigating the dissappearances of individuals who may have been taken by the intelligence agencies or by militants.- the Independent

Musharraf can easily get reelected with the help of the Intelligence agencies and the security service. He currently is trying to cut a deal with exiled leader Benazir Bhutto and allow her to become the Prime Minister if she supports him as the President. It would give his regime legitimacy for his electoral victory.

Bhutto would be a good asset for the US to apply pressure on Musharraf to stop cutting deals with Islamic radicals. Bhutto should be able to get a great deal of support from the opposition , who are tired of the President's policies. The US by trumping the democracy, won't seem like much of a change of policy regarding our policy with Musharraf; we already have encouraged him in the past. Unfortunately it would be hard for the West to encourage much change in the regime when it is dominated by the military and intelligence agencies. A weak Pervez Musharraf and an even weaker secular opposition could be catastrophic and a major defeat in the war on terrorism.

2007-04-22T02:13:00.000-04:00

Russia Orders its Radio News to Broadcast 50% Good News/America is Enemy

According to the New York Times, the Russian Government, who controls or exerts much influence in the radio waves, ordered broadcasters to report 50% good news every day, even during times of catclysmic events. Journalists working for the Russian News Service said that they were told to portray the US as the enemy and to not talk about Russian opposition leaders.

2007-04-07T01:27:00.000-04:00

Pakistan's Scary 'Talibanist' Threat, Threatens its Future

Pakistan, one of the US key allies on the war on terror, is being threatened by Islamist terrorism, at a level that is too close to comfort for the Musharraf regime. A chief cleric of the radical Lal Masjid mosque in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, plans to introduce an Islamic court system and warned that if the government tries to suppress them, it would face the wrath of suicide bombers. The Pakistani government announced that they will not allow them to threaten the government, but at the same time were no where to be seen in front of the mosque where extremist jihadi propaganda was handed out.

The cleric, Maulana Abdul Aziz , has given the government a deadline of one month to close down all video, music shops, brothels and bordellos, or they will do it themselves.- Khaleej Times It is not the first time the Pakistani government had problems with clerics of Lal Masjid. They have called for Musharraf's assassination. After the 7/7 bombings in London, the Pakistani military attempted to raid the mosque but was beaten back by its female students. The government announced plans to dismantle the mosque but was confronted by its students who took over Islamabad's only children's library.- The Times

The events happening in Islamabad should not be suprising. Pakistan has been known to be quietly supporting the Taliban against the Karzai government of Afghanistan (mainly because they believe it would be under its sphere of influence and that Karzai is pro-India). It is believe by many intelligence services that most of the Taliban's leaders are living in the Pakistani regional capital of Quetta, not far from the Afghan border. The tribal provinces along its border with Afghanistan are known for its very conservative, pro-Taliban, and anti-American views. It would be naive for the Pakistani government not to realize that Islamic radicalism spreads like an airborne cancer, through firebrand clerics and pamphlets, as well as by the madrassas, that the government have not closed down. Another issue is the up and coming parliamentary and presidential elections, which Musharraf is leaning on the Islamists for support.- The Times

The US must have plans ready in case nuclear power, Pakistan, falls to the Islamists, otherwise the war on terror will in jeopardy.

2007-03-06T17:47:00.000-05:00

Another Russian Journalist Killed

Ivan Safronov, the military affairs writer for Kommersant, fell off of the fifth floor window in a stairwell in his apartment building. Suicide appears the most likely case according to the authorities. His comrades in the media believe this scenario is not the case, since he has been known to be a "strong, cheerful person who would be extremely unlikely to kill himself."

Prior to becoming a journalist, Safronov was a colonel in the Russian Space Forces. As a journalist with Kommersant, he wrote many critical pieces regarding the military and had been frequently questioned by the FSB, which accused him of divulging state secrets. Charges were never filed against him because his sources were public sources. Last December, he angered state authorities when he reported on the third consecutive failed launch of its new Bulava intercontinental ballistic missile. The government never admitted its failure. - Houston Chronicle

Just day or two before, an expert on Russian intelligence, Paul Joyal, was shot during a random robbery in Washington. Joyal just a few days ago was interviewed by NBC Dateline, regarding the poisoning of former FSB agent Alexander Litvinenko in London. Litvinenko, a President Putin critic accused Putin being behind his poisoning shortly before he died in November. -USA Today

If you scroll down I may have a posting on the Litvinenko poisoning, and I also have a posting from October about the murder of Kremlin critic and journalist Anna Politkovskaya.

2007-03-01T15:50:00.000-05:00

Former Canadian Defense Minister: Use UFO Technology to Fight Global Warming

Paul Hellyer, a former Canadian defense minister and MP, said that world governments should disclose and use secret alien technologies obtained in alleged UFO crashes, to fight global warming. He mentioned that to travel far distances, they must have advanced propulsion systems or other fuel sources.

2007-03-01T02:53:00.000-05:00

Mugabe's Zimbabwe in Dire Economic Straits

According to the Zimbabwe's central bank governor,their (Zimbabwe) economy is "broke and hungary,"
The Reserve Bank governor, Gideon Gono, told a parliamentary committee that he was struggling to keep the country's electricity on and the air force aloft. He admitted he had no funds to buy police vehicles or print passports and that unless drastic action was taken on rampant inflation, Zimbabwe could slump "to levels never dreamt before". The battered economy has become President Mr Mugabe's most potent opponent and public anger is growing, say civic leaders. Since the beginning of the year the economy has taken a lurching fall, with inflation soaring to nearly 1,600% and food and fuel shortages gripping the nation" -the Guardian.
Mugabe has ruled the country since independence from Great Britain in 1980. The politically democratic opposition has been barred from protesting in the major cities and have faced a major crackdown by the police, the opposition accuses the police/military of brutality and by repressing the Zimbabwean opposition against the Mugabe dictatorship. Please help the people of Zimbabwe against the corrupt failed regime of Robert Mugabe! This Guardian article among many, others, report on the atrocities committed by the Mugabe government.

2007-02-25T23:10:00.000-05:00

American Jews Make up the Largest Religious Group to Oppose Iraq War

According to the latest Gallup Poll, the majority of American Jews polled strongly opposed the Iraq War 77%-21%. The majority of Catholics also oppose the war but with a much narrower gap 53%-46%. White Protestants were the only grouping that supports the war with 55% supporting to 43% oppose. Another interesting number to note is that the majority of Jews not affiliated with the Democratic Party, believe the war was a mistake 65%-38%. In 2003 and 2004 about 6 out of 10 Jews opposed the war. This is kind of interesting since the state of Israel is probably the biggest supporter of George Bush in the world.

2007-02-25T21:37:00.000-05:00

The First Battle Against Terrorism

For most people the 'war on terror' began on 9/11, for some it was the first World Trade Center bombing, or the bombing of American marines in beirut by Hezbollah back in the early 80s. The origins of the war on terror actually began right after the US gained its independence from Britain in 1783. The Barbary Pirates based out of Tripoli, and other locations along the North African coast raised havoc against sailors that came across them. Although they terrorized Europeans, they really went after American ships. The European powers paid tribute to the pirates in order for their ships not to be attacked. In 1786 Thomas Jefferson, the American Ambassador to France, and John Adams the American Ambassador to Britain, met with Sidi Haji Abdul Rahman Adja, the Tripolitan ambassador to Britain in London. Jefferson and Adams tried to negotiate a peace with Tripoli in order to protect American shipping. They asked why they have become major targets of the pirates. Sidi Haji Abdul Rahman Adja responded

that it was founded on the Laws of their Prophet, that it was written in their Koran, that all nations who should not have acknowledged their authority were sinners, that it was their right and duty to make war upon them wherever they could be found, and to make slaves of all they could take as Prisoners, and that every Musselman [Muslim] who should be slain in Battle was sure to go to Paradise.

During that time the US did not go after the pirates and continued to pay tribute to them. Jefferson argued that by not going after them the pirate attacks will not cease and they will continued to be exploited. Once Jefferson became President, in 1801 he sent naval forces to confront them. In 1806 the US made peace with Tripoli but it took another war in 1816 with British and Dutch help that ended the Pirate threat against the US. The Barbary Pirates continued to attack French ships until 1830 when the French decided to conquer Algiers.

The conflict over the Barbary states is an early example of Islamic terrorism and the Western response to it. The important lesson from this conflict was that paying ransom was only going to increase the kidnappings and pirate attacks not end it. The US halfheartedly took the lead in trying to stop the threat but it wasn't until Britain and other Europeans realized enough was enough and then the Pirates became a marginal threat.

2007-01-31T19:15:00.000-05:00

Israeli Prime Minster did not like Bush's Plan for Iraq

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon warned Bush not to occupy Iraq. He noted that Iraq was a threat and most likely had nuclear weapons but "In terms of culture and tradition, the Arab world is not built for democratization," according to Danny Ayalon the former Israeli Ambassador to the US. He advised the President not to go in without an exit strategy,a counterinsurgency strategy,and keep in mind that Iraq might have to be partitioned. -Daily Star

2007-01-19T01:04:00.000-05:00

Disturbing: Embedded Journalists findings in Mosques in the UK

Check out the blog: A Deeper Look it has a few clips from You Tube of journalists taping extremist speeches at " mainstream" British mosques and organizations. Some of the clips were taken off You Tube, probably because it upset some sensitivies of a hopefully a very minuscule segment of Western Society.

2007-01-19T00:23:00.000-05:00

Iran Offered to Cut Off Hezbollah in Overture to US in 2003: BBC

According to the BBC, Iran sent the US a letter after the invasion of Iraq to cut off its support of Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as show transparency with its nuclear program. Iran asked in return for an end of its hostile behavior towards them, the cessation of sanctions, and the repatriation and prosecution of a terrorist Iranian opposition group based in Iraq called Mujahedeen Khalq (People's Mujahideen).

The State Department responded favorably to the letter, which was unsigned but believed to have the support of the highest authorities in Iran. When the letter was sent to the VP Dick Cheney's office; the letter was sent out and rejected According to Lawrence Wilkerson, who was chief of staff to Colin Powell.

2007-01-09T23:26:00.000-05:00

Venezuela: the Reeking of Communism

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced his plans to nationalize the telecom and electricity industries. The main telecom giant, Compania Nacional de Telefonos de Venezuala, is controlled by Verizon. He also announced his plan to throw out the country's commercial code and strip the central bank of its autonomy. These are all steps in Chavez's "21st Century Socialism." He has been campaigning all over South America in order to sell Venezuela as a new role model for the poor countries of Latin America, and limit the American 'imperialism' in the Southern Hemisphere (Wall Street Journal).

Polically, Chavez is consolidating his hold over the political sphere of Venezuela. He is merging his leftist alliance of political parties into a single poltical party called the United Venezuelan Socialist Party. With all major governmental institutions dominated by his supporters, it could mean the establishment of a one party state.

He is also trying to strengthen his grip over the independent media, by planning to revoke the license of RCTV. RCTV has been known to voice its opposition to Hugo Chavezs policies. In his inaugural address he called upon the National Assembly to grant him the power to rule by decree and to abolish term limits on the presidency. This soon to be dictatorship that reeks of communism.

2006-12-20T13:11:00.000-05:00

Saudi Arabia's Islamic Designs for Spain

There have been plans made by Saudi financiers to build a "Mecca" style mosque in the Spanish city of Cordoba. Cordoba, a millenia a go, used to the capital of an Islamic Caliphate in the tenth century. The plan is to make the mosque the second largest in the world and make Cordoba the Mecca of Europe. Cordoba's current Muslim population is roughly a thousand adherents, out of about 300,000 residents.
It appears to this author that this is an attempt by Saudi Arabia to re-Islamize Spain. According to Islamic religious traditions, areas that were under Islamic control must return to Islam. They want to build a large mosque there to bring Muslims back to Spain. They want Cordoba to return to its Islamic glory and to "al Andalus". Creating a Mecca like production would most likely do the trick. It would help make Cordoba as the holiest Islamic city in Europe.

2006-12-12T00:13:00.000-05:00

The Nascent Cesspool that is Gaza

The other day in the Gaza Strip, three young children of a senior Palestinian intelligence officer loyal to President Mahmoud Abbas, were gunned down on the way to school. Today there were reports of gunfire between the security services loyal to Abbas' Fatah movement and policemen loyal to Hamas. Many members of Fatah believe Hamas was involved with the killings, which will only exacerbate the tensions between the two governing factions of the Palestinian Authority.

The more impoverished part of the Occupied Territories, Gaza has been facing mounting violence and crime especially since ths start of the Western embargo of aid to the Palestinian Authority, in which the anti-IsraelHamas won the Palestinian elections.

The PA which has been financially bankrupt has been unable to quell the recent surge of violence. The lack of economic opportunities caused by the Western embargo, and the tensions between the governing factions will only serve Islamic radicals more extreme then the political wing of Hamas, run by P. A. Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh. Gaza is slowly turning itself an Iraq, Somalia, or 1990s Afghanistan. The deteriorating security in the Strip, will foster the support of extremist groups like the Taliban and the Islamic Courts, as long as they are capable of being ruthless enough to impose their version of law and order. The anti-Israeli sentiment, and the weakening of the secular Fatah Movement, will only further the process of Islamic radicalization of the Palestinian masses in Gaza. The only major country that has been aiding the PA is Iran. Iran pledge to help the PA by giving them $250 million in aid, this will only increase Iran's Hegemony in the Middle East.

The killing of the children may not have anything to do with Hamas. Al Qaeda and other Islamic extremists may have orchestrated the killings themselves to threaten Palestinian intelligence services. Al Qaeda has already threatened President Abbas; the sucide bombing of a hotel in Amman last year by Al Qaeda killed PA intelligence chief of the West Bank.

Although Hamas is not itself moderate, the leadership in the PA has moderated their positions to some extent. If civil war erupts between Fatah and Hamas, then a more extreme group could appear and end hope of having peace in the Middle East. There is a nascent cesspool brewing between Israel and the Sinai Peninsula, this cesspool is commonly known as the Gaza strip.

2006-12-06T00:37:00.000-05:00

Iran's War for Hegemony in the Middle East

Since 2003, Iran has aided Shiite Militias in Iraq, mainly the Mahdi Army, and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. The Mahdi Army has been the most violent against American forces in Iraq, while both have been accused of causing widespread sectarian violence against Sunnis in Iraq. Sunni insurgents themselves fear that Iran is as much as a threat to them as the US forces. Iranian influence is expected to increase once US forces withdrawl. Sunni Arab States such as Saudi Arabia have threatened to aid Sunni insurgents in order to protect them against the Iranian backed Shiite militas. If Iraq becomes an ally, if not a puppet of Iran, it will be given a supply route to help arm its anti-Israeli proxies and make it closer to the Jewish state in time of war. This would definitely help Iran to get closer to Lebanon.

The Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah has been trying flex it muscles in recent months, both militarily and politically. The Israelis consider Hezbollah as a Lebanese wing of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, since they collaborate with eachother and receive most of its funding and arms from Iran. The summer war between Hezbollah and Israel and the kidnappings of an Israeli soldier near Gaza by Hamas, shows how Iran can easily stir up trouble against her enemies. During the Summer War, the Sunni Arab States of Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia criticized Hezbollah for starting the war. The Arab street showed support for Hezbollah on the street in deference to conservative Sunni Orthodoxy, which believes Shiite Muslims are heretical.

Currently in Lebanon, there is a political crisis that may lead to a renewed civil war. Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian/Iranian allies have take the streets in order to force the Anti-Syrian government to resign or to cede some power to the opposition. The democratically elected government led by Prime Minister Fuad Saniora, a Sunni Muslim, in a coaltion with Anti-Syrian politicians composed of Sunnis, Christians, and Druze. The Hezbollah opposion consists of mainly Shia groups, with minuscule amounts of Christians and Sunnis. There has been sporadic sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shiites occurring in Beirut in the passed few days, in which one Shiite has been killed. The government believes that Syria is behind the violence to destablize the country and have actually arrested a few Syrians. Egypt warned that it if the crisis continues, it could become regionalized. People from Arab countries would flock to support the Lebanese government, and people would also flock on behalf of Hezbollah creating a hot war. If Hezbollah and her allies topple the government, then a pro-Syrian/Iranian government would take its place, and Lebanese interests would then become subordinated to the interests of Iran and Syria. A new Lebanese front against Israel would be expected to open up relatively soon.

Finally, Palestine is under the brink of civil war. The killing of a Palestinian intelligence official's children, the security official. The officer is a supporter of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who also leads the Fatah organization. Fatah has blamed it on Hamas, the militant group that has the majority in parliament, in which Ismail Haniyeh is the Prime Minister. Since the death of Yasir Arafat, Fatah has been given support by Jordan, Egypt and to a lesser extent the US and Israel. Fatah signed the Oslo accord under the PLO and has recognized Israel's right to exist. Hamas, on the hand, is supported by Syria and Iran and has refused to support Israel's right to exist. Hamas' military wing is based in Damascus and is a bit more extreme than its political wing based in Gaza. Iran and Syria have given Hamas, as well as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (also based in Damascus) aid and weapons to fight their war against Israel. According to Israeli officials, Israel has allowed allowed Egypt to send weapons and ammunition to bloster the security forces of President Abbas. No doubt that if a civil war occurs those weapons would be used against Hamas. US and European officials earlier this week were in Jordan at a Fatah base where Palestinians were receiving military training. The Bush administration is preparing to ask congress for money to help President Abbas' Presidential Guards and strengthen its control over the border crossings. Its not a secret that the Sunni states of Egypt and Jordan dislike Iran and its increasing influence in the region.

The Sunni-Shiite cold war thats taking place can become hot at anyime. In Iraq it is already happening, international intervention by states like Saudi Arabia has not occurred since American forces are still present. Its the impression of this author that Syria is trying to inflame the tensions in Beirut, but it seems like the major leaders on Lebanon do not want to be accused of firing the first shot. Like in Beirut, the threat of elections could cause the tension to boil, since Hamas does not want early elections, which is what Abbas has been proposing. Iran's hegemonic tendencies may not just destablize the Middle East and may spread to its neighboring Shia state, Azerbaijan.

2006-11-16T01:58:00.000-05:00

Withdrawing from Iraq Comes Down to Iran

The debate over whether the US should either, stay the course, or withdrawal is coming around full circle with the recent election of the new Congress. The best option can only be delivered if we know the complete dimensions of the insurgency in relation to Iran. People who want to withdrawal believe that the war has become a major burden and is not capable of productive results. Many advocates of the "stay the course," believe we should stay there to prevent civil war and Iran's hegemony over the Fertile Crescent. There is one thing that can either help or kill these arguments and that is Iran. It is a fact that the invasion of Iraq completely changed the balance of power in Iran's favor. US forces in Iraq besides trying to help the fledgling Iraqi government, is there to keep Iran in check. Al Qaeda in Iraq is continuing to make its own presence felt as well. Al Qaeda itself is justification for continued American presence. It is a wild card and whomever’s hand that has it can have major implications on US strategy in Iraq.

Advocates who believe the US should stay the course argue that if we leave Iraq, then Iran will take our place. The Iranians and their Syrian allies would be neighbors and be able to open a joint front against Israel and continue to threaten our interests in the Middle East. At the same time Al Qaeda and other insurgents will become more powerful in Iraq. This logic could become a fact if the relationship between Iran and Al Qaeda could be proven, but due to pre-war intelligence failures who is going to trust our intelligence this time? The relationship between al Qaeda and Iran is very sketchy at best.

Most Sunni extremists particularly of the Salafi,Wahabbi strain consider Shia Islam as heretical. Iran is the only Shia power in the region and many Sunnis would not like to be dominated by them. They fear that Iran is seeking to control the Arab World through its influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon and that they are exploiting the Israeli- Palestinian conflict to reach its goals. Ethnically Iran is Persian, as opposed to Arab, which most Iraqis are Arab. The Islamic Army of Iraq an indigenous Sunni Islamic insurgent group with ties to Al Qaeda sent CNN a message a few weeks ago calling for negotiations with the US, in the video they answered a few questions asked by CNN. They mentioned how they accused the US of bringing Iranian occupation upon them. It is believed that they want negotiations with the US because they view the Iraqi government is influenced by Iran. It has to be remembered that Saddam's Iraq was dominated by Sunni's and now they feel disenfranchised and do not like the Iranian supported, Shia government governing them. They differ from Al Qaeda because they have only a local agenda, while Al Qaeda's agenda is international. Subsequently, Al Qaeda's statement after the US elections, mentioned their distaste for Hassan Nasrallah Hezbollah's leader for being to close to IranAKI. Also, an Al Qaeda website just recently called Sunnis in Lebanon to confront Hezbollah, accusing Hezbollah of trying to eliminate the Sunnis, and being controlled by Syria and Iran An Nahar .A few Al Qaeda websites in the past warned their brethren not to fall in the path of state sponsorship like Hezbollah and Hamas.

On the flip side, Iran desires to be the leader of the Islamic World and have crossed the aisle and supported Sunni extremists groups against Israel and to lesser extent Jordan. The maxim that says the enemy of my enemy is my friend could ring true. Sunni extremists and Iran have a few things in common mainly their hatred of the US and Israel, as well as, their Arab stooges. There are reports that there are hidden ties between the upper echelons of the Islamic Republic and Al Qaeda that have existed prior to 9/11 MEMRI There have been rumors that some of the tactics used by the Sunni insurgent groups were assisted by Iran and also by Syria. According to the British daily the Telegraph, Iran is training future Al Qaeda leaders to lead the organization once Osama Bin Laden dies. Becoming Al Qaeda’s state sponsor would give Iran a monopoly over Islamic groups and dominance in the Islamic World

During the Summer War the Sunni states condemned Hezbollah for triggering the war against Israel; the Arab street on the other hand praised Hezbollah. Al Qaeda and other Sunni groups showed mixed reactions to Hezbollah. Al Qaeda number two Ayman al-Zawahiri said that Muslims everywhere has a duty to fight against the Zionists alongside the Muslims in Lebanon and Gaza. It may be important to note that he did not mention Hezbollah by name, disturbingly he mentioned that they must continue the jihad to liberate all Muslim lands from Spain to Iraq. A few radical Saudi clerics have issued Fatwas telling Muslims not to support Hezbollah or even "pray" for them.Jerusalem Post

In conclusion it is really difficult to discern Iran’s intentions in Iraq once the US leaves. Iran probably does have some ties to Al Qaeda but most likely does not involve much state sponsorship. Many Sunni extremist may be happy to join Iran in a fight against Israel, but what would happen if Iran succeeds in defeating Israel? Iran will be the dominant regional superpower and the version Islam represented by them would look extraordinarily good; the radical Sunnis would have the most to lose. Regardless, Al Qaeda would no longer be the same entity, Al Qaeda in Iraq, the Islamic Army, and other insurgent groups will most likely disavow any Iranian influence in their country, and would cause many problems, once the US were to withdrawal. Many other Sunnis who share in Salafist ideology would feel the same way. If Iran succeeds in forming some type of alliance with Al Qaeda proper, then the organization itself will break off into different factions and in some regard lose its legitimacy.

Finally, if the latter is true that Iran and Al Qaeda will collaborate then it would spell trouble for the US and make regime change option may look really tempting, besides keeping the status quo in Iraq. It could easily be argued that parts of Al Qaeda would claim that they collaborate with Iran, in order for the US to launch another invasion and weaken its Islamic rival. A British and French mole within Al Qaeda claimed that Al Qaeda fabricated its alleged links to Iraq, in order to compel the US to invade BBC. If the Iraqi Sunni community/insurgency is as anti-Iranian as they say they are then it should be expected that Iran itself could be drawn into a quagmire of its own once US forces leave. Unfortunately the prospects of civil war would still loom.

2006-11-08T22:37:00.000-05:00

Hamas Calls for attacks against American Targets

America is offering political, financial and logistic cover for the Zionist occupation crimes, and it is responsible for the Beit Hanoun massacre. Therefore, the people and the nation all over the globe are required to teach the American enemy tough lessons Hamas' military wing said in a statement sent to The Associated Press

The political wing of Hamas in Gaza distanced himself from those statements, but the statements is damning and could complicate Hamas'interests as well as the US War on Terror. Israel also is complicating American interests with massacres like these.

2006-10-11T01:09:00.000-04:00

IRAN: DIPLOMATS TOLD POPE BENEDICT XVI WANTS 'WAR' WITH ISLAM

Speakers at a conference sponsored by the Iranian foreign ministry accused Pope Benedict of wanting a war against Islam and that he supported Hitler. Hojatolislam Seyyed Hadi Khosrowshahi a former ambassador to the Vatican, said that the Pope's speech in Germany as "not the start of a new crusade, but the continuation of the first war between Christians and Islam, a war which has never ended." He also said that that many prominent Muslims want to reevaluate their relationship with the Catholic Church AKI .

2006-10-10T23:55:00.000-04:00

Russian Journalist and Putin Critic Murdered

Anna Politkovskaya, a journalist who followed the Chechen wars and reported the Russian government's many abuses was found murdered in cold blood last Saturday. During her visits to Chechnya and the North Caucuses she wrote articles that reported on the human rights violations committed by Russian and Russian-backed forces, and also gave descriptions of the human devestation caused by the war BBC .

She worked for the Novaya Gazeta, one of Russia's few liberal independent newspapers, and wrote two books based on her articles,"Putin's Russia: Life in a Failing Democracy" and "A Dirty War: A Russian Reporter in Chechnya," It was the second political assassination in a month, which started with the assassination of Andrei Kozlov, the deputy governor of Russia's Central Bank who was leading a campaign against financial fraud, was assassinated on September 14 Daily Star .

2006-09-18T16:21:00.000-04:00

War with the West will not end until Islam takes over the World

Al Qaida in Iraq issued that statement over the the furor caused by the Pope's comments that he made last week. This is just one of the many statements made by Al Qaida and like minded Islamic extremist groups, that shows their true intentions. There is a clash of civilizations and it will last until the end of time.

2006-09-18T15:44:00.000-04:00

The clash of civilizations

Yesterday the Pope deeply regretted quoting a medieval text that accused some of the prophet Mohammed's teachings as being

"evil and inhuman"

and calling for the spread of Islam through violence. The statements he made on Sept 12, caused widespread condemnation in the Muslim World.

Many Muslim organizations have accepted the Pope's apology, and defended their religion as a religion of peace. Several smaller groups reacted in the opposite manner, churches have been attacked in the West Bank and a nun was murdered in Somalia. Extremist groups in Iraq dissproved the theory that Islam is a religion of peace by calling for the Holy Father's head. The Pope's references to Islam was to instigate dialogue especially over the understanding of the Islamic concept of jihad, and the role of violence in religion, in order to prevent a clash of civilization.

This isn't the first time that Islamic extremists have threatened the Pope. Bin Laden, through Ramzi Yousef, plotted to assassinate John Paul II on a trip to the Philippines in 1995. There were even reports that Zaraqawi plotted to assassinate him a few years ago accusing the Vatican of supporting the US in Iraq despite the Vatican's stance that the US should not have invaded Iraq.

2006-09-18T15:36:00.000-04:00

Sorry

I am sorry for not posting anything new in recent weeks. My computer died recently so I haven't had many opportunities to put up a new posting. I have also been very busy. Thank you for your patience.

2006-08-30T00:04:00.000-04:00

The Kremlin Backs New Opposition Party

Three Russian political parties announced that they formed a coalition with each other in order to fight Vladmir Putin's governing party. The Party of Life, the Pensioner's Party and the Rodina (Motherland) Party joined hands in opposition to the governing United Russia Party. The Party of Life's leader, Sergei Mironov, a known Putin ally, spoke saying that this "political union will change fundamentally the political map of Russia." The Pensioner's Party and Rodina Party are also known to have links to Vladmir Putin's Kremlin.
Vladislav Surkov, the Kremlin deputy chief of staff, floated the idea of the coalition in March. The idea of this coalition is to become United Russia's opposition from the Left.

2006-08-16T01:50:00.000-04:00

Hezbollah, Lebanese Reconstruction, and how the US should React

In Hassan Nasarallah's "victory" speech on Monday, he stated that to complete the victory post-war reconstruction under their leadership will be done. Hezbollah told Nehme T. Tohme, a member of parliament and the country’s minister for the displaced, that Iran would provide then with an unlimited budget for reconstruction. Hezbollah is already out in the streets in towns destroyed by the war assisting the people. This article courtesy of the New York Times New York Times outlines Hezbollah's strategy and its reach.

It is not fully known what the US strategy is regarding post-war Lebanon. It is known that the US must strengthen the Lebanese government at the expense of Hezbollah. In order to prevent Hezbollah from gaining more power, the United States needs to supply Beirut with almost an unlimited amount of funds to counter Hezbollah's reconstruction efforts. Hezbollah thrives in the areas were the central government is weak. The central government needs to be able to have the funding to step into Shiite and other devastated areas and take care of its people. The US has provided 30 million dollars in humanitarian assistance during this conflict but gave it through American organizations or NGOs like the Catholic Relief Services, although helpful, it is not strengthening the Lebanese government.

The United States, if necessary should be willing to spend billions of dollars in helping civil society in Lebanon. Success on the war on terrorism depends on it. As long as the government fails to provide all of its services, Hezbollah will become more and more powerful. At a certain point if they feel strong enough they might take an opportunity to overthrow the government and complete its goal to create an Islamic republic. To weaken and eventually be able to disarm Hezbollah, the government needs to have reasons why the Lebanese people should rely on the government instead of Hezbollah. A strong government with the proper funds and support can do just that. It is pertinent to American interests to embolden the pro-Western majority in the current government in order to stop the hegemonic advance of Syria and Iran in the Middle East.

2006-08-09T00:57:00.000-04:00

US Sailor Accused of Spying for Israel

Ariel J. Weinmann, a US navy sailor, has been held in a military prison for the last few months. The US has accused him of desertion, but according to the Saudi daily Al Watan he has also been accused of espionage. The Defense Department has remained silent on the case and has not verified whether or not he has been charged or accused of spying for Israel.Jerusalem Post

2006-08-05T01:41:00.000-04:00

Preventing another Munich: Why the US Should not Talk to Syria, Iran

Whatever happens, Hizbullah will emerge victorious. To whom will Hizbullah dedicate this victory? Will it dedicate the victory to the Lebanese state, to the honoring of international resolutions, to the Taif Agreement? Or will it dedicate it to the Syrian regime, the Syrian-Iranian axis, in which case we will become scorched earth, annexed to Syria and Iran? Each of these countries wants, with this abduction, to negotiate with America over the remains of the Lebanese homeland.MEMRI

Lebanese Druze MP, Walid Jumblatt

The Bush administration has been attacked a lot recently over the fact that the US is not talking to Syria over the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict. Holding dialogue is very important in international diplomacy and is very useful thing to do with your enemies. In the context of this war, the Bush administration is doing the right thing. There are two main reasons. Firstly the United States does not negotiate with terrorists and secondly, we do ot want to undermine the anti-Syrian Lebanese government. The US policy in Lebanon is to support the anti-Syrian government.

If the US negotiates with state sponsors of terrorism like Syria and Iran, it would cause obstacles on the war on terror. Negotiating with Syria will give the impression that state sponsored terrorism is a useful diplomatic tool. By going to Damascus, US will give the Syrians the illusion that they are winning the conflict and that they can extract concessions. They will conclude that capturing Israelis is an effective way to obtain some of their demands and will provoke similar crises in the future.

Secondly, by speaking with Hezbollah’s sponsors, the West will undermine the already weak anti-Syrian government in Beirut. An agreement between the US and the Assad regime could resemble the Munich Agreement of 1938, the Lebanese government would most likely not be on the negotiating table when the US acquiesces to Syria’s designs on Lebanese sovereignty, restoring Syrian rule to Lebanon. The US has sold out Lebanon once before back in 1990, when the US wanted Syrian support against Iraq in the first Gulf War. Lebanese nationalists probably have not forgotten
.

2006-08-03T14:13:00.000-04:00

Spain Ready to sell out Lebanon in order for Syria to Broker Peace

According to Expatica, Spanish foreign minister,Miguel Angel Moratinos met with Syrian President Bashar Assad asking him to broker a peace agreement. He wants Syria to use its influence over Hezbollah. During the press conference afterwards Moratinos said that Syrian leaders were

going to exercise all their influence on Hizbullah, but the circumstances and the political and military context in the Lebanon has to change.

If the West were to agree with Assad on this then it will fulfill a major objective of the Syrian government and that objective it is to retake control of Lebanon. Syria wants to reverse its losses that occurred last year when the Lebanese masses demanded Syria to withdrawal its troops from Lebanon. After the withdrawal, the Lebanese government held parliamentary elections in which the anti-Syrian alliance won the majority of seats and took the prime ministership. In a posting below, there is a quote from Lebanese MP Walid Jumblatt. In the quote he predicts that the West is going to sell out Lebanon, for the sake of Hezbollah restraint, to Syria and Iran.

Hezbollah started the war with Israel because of Lebanon not Israel. The pro-Syrians in the government wanted to destablize the anti-Syrian government. More and more people were clamoring for Hezbollah to disarm, so Hezbollah did the only thing that they could to provoke to a crisis.

2006-08-03T02:47:00.000-04:00

Iran Frees Bin Laden Son

Saad Bin Laden is believed to be freed from house arrest in Iran last week. The German Magazine Die Welt reorted that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards released him last week. The released him with the aim of sending him to the Syria-Lebanon border. They have hope that he will create new Islamist cell that would fight side by side with Hezbollah (Reuters)

2006-08-02T13:41:00.000-04:00

China has developed 2nd Strike Capability against the US

The US intelligence community believes that the Chinese have deployed missiles that would give it second strike nuclear capability, in a conflict over the United States. They have developed and deployed submarines that can launch missiles with ranges from 8,000- 13,000 kilometers. Several types of their submaries have the potential to carry multiple warheads By 2007 it is predicted that they will have a submarines that can overwhelm existing US defenses and hit the continental US. (Insight Magazine)

2006-08-01T01:45:00.001-04:00

Quotes from Lebanese Druze Leader Walid Jumblatt Regarding Hezbollah, Syria

"Whatever happens, Hizbullah will emerge victorious. To whom will Hizbullah dedicate this victory? Will it dedicate the victory to the Lebanese state, to the honoring of international resolutions, to the Taif Agreement? Or will it dedicate it to the Syrian regime, the Syrian-Iranian axis, in which case we will become scorched earth, annexed to Syria and Iran? Each of these countries wants, with this abduction, to negotiate with America over the remains of the Lebanese homeland."MEMRI

2006-08-01T00:33:00.000-04:00

Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia does not Support Hezbollah

According to an online Jihadi publication, Al Qaeda officials in Saudi Arabia refuse to tag along with Ayman Al-Zawahiri's call for Sunni's to fight along with their Shiite brethren against the Israelis.

"If the Shiite ardour in the fight against the Jews were to increase to the point where they are able to defeat them, then the supporters of Hezbollah will increase and perhaps many will join them (Hezbollah) and this should never happen,AKI"

The news article mentions how Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is following the fatwa issued by a Saudi cleric last week which forbids Muslims from supporting Hezbollah. Many elements in Al Qaeda hate Shia Muslims, Abu Musab Al Zarqawi was one of the few people in Al Qaeda that called for their killings in Iraq. This shows that there is a major rift between the two major fundamentalist Islamic ideologies. Both Iran and Al Qaeda are competing for influence over the Islamic masses. Iran, which is a Shiite and Persian (non-Arab),is showing its clout by hitting Israel through Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza. While the Sunni Arab states sit idly back. These actions should only increase Iran's popularity in the Arab World as the defenders of the Muslim Ummah; it could possibly weaken the Sunni governments themselves.

2006-07-26T22:56:00.000-04:00

Howard Dean Calls Iraqi PM Maliki "anti-Semite"

Howard Dean, the Democratic Party chairman, in a speech today in Florida called Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki an "anti-semite" for not denouncing Hezbollah and for condemning Israel's attacks against them in Lebanon. He said, We don't need to spend $200 and $300 and $500 billion bringing democracy to Iraq to turn it over to people who believe that Israel doesn't have a right to defend itself and who refuse to condemn Hezbollah."(AP)
Its really disturbing to see American politicians on both sides of the aisle who use feeble rhetoric and fail to look at the opposite side of that rhetoric. Maliki Is the Prime Minister of Iraq, he is a Shia Muslim with ties to Iran. If he were to say that Israel is in the right, his constituents would demand he resign from office and possibly call for his beheading. It would cause a firestorm. Hezbollah is supported by most of his co-religionists, and sadly by Iraq's other powerbroker, Iran. Mr Dean does not seem to have much knowledge of Islamic Civilization. He does not seem to know the definition of "anti-semite," which means your prejucide against Jews. It does not mean anti-Israel. His rhetoric and similar comments made by others will only helped the ill-learned in our country and be counterproductive to our national interests in the Middle East.

2006-07-24T18:58:00.000-04:00

Israel’s War Plan against Hezbollah was Created over a Year Ago

Israeli war plans used for this current conflict was designed over a year ago to combat Hezbollah. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, Israel was concerned with Hezbollah’s buildup of weapons, since it withdrew from Lebanon in 2000. Israel had made simulations and rehearsed for this conflict for the past two years or so. Senior Israeli military officials even displayed power point presentation to US diplomats, journalists and members of a few think tanks.
The war plan was formulated to last 3 weeks long, with the first week concentrating on the destruction of Hezbollah’s long range missiles, followed by the destruction of control centers, transportation and communication facilities. The second week zeros in on individual ammunition sites and missile launching sites. The third week features commando attacks and mobilizing ground troops to disable Hezbollah’s strongholds in Southern Lebanon

2006-07-22T01:25:00.000-04:00

Lebanese Defense Minister Warns Israel

Yesterday the Jerusalem Post had an article in which the pro-Syrian Lebanese Defense Minister, Elias Murr, warned Israel that the Lebanese Army may join forces with Hezbollah if Israel invades South Lebanon. This would be a disturbing change of events regarding the internal situation of Lebanon, allying more groups of people to Hezbollah’s cause. It could cause the Lebanonization of the war. If these events were to occur, Hezbollah could gain more support and possibly the people may start believing in their message. It might change the dynamics of the war as far as the Lebanese street is concerned. On the other hand, under the 1989 Taif Accord which ended the Lebanese Civil War, 2/3 of cabinet members would have to approve of all matters regarding war and peace. The majority of the cabinet members are anti-Syrian, and would most likely be too reluctant to allow the Lebanese Army to be used with Hezbollah. Elias Murr’s threat could be considered empty threats, unless Israel makes horrible p.r. moves.

2006-07-21T22:05:00.000-04:00

Hezbollah's War on Disarmament

Prior to the outbreak of hostilities last week, the Lebanese government were having periods of talks under a national dialogue. The national dialogue consisted of all of the major groupings in the Lebanese government, the pro- and anti-Syrian members of the government. The issues that were up for discussion were Lebanon's relationship with Syria, the demarcation of the border, the status of Palestinian weapons outside the refugee camps, and the fate of Hezbollah's weapons. Since the withdrawal of Syrian troops last year, Hezbollah has been put on the defensive by the anti-Syrian majority in Parliament. Hassan Nasrallah Hezbollah's, secretary general, said in several statements that they won't be disarmed until the Arab-Israeli conflict ends. Hezbollah's capture of Israeli soldiers last week was an attempt to change the current political deadlock to its favor. Debka's website reported a few months ago on a failed to attempt to capture a few Israeli soldiers during a Lebanese holiday. The article mentioned that they wanted to look powerful and strong in the face of the March 14th, anti-Syrian alliance.
This episode was Hezbollah's attempt to remind the Lebanese that they are a force to be reckoned with and to rally its Shia constituency's support. Calling for the release of Lebanese prisoners from Israeli jails was Hezbollah’s scheme to make themselves look like the "The Guaranteer of Lebanese's sovereignty." It would show the Lebanese that they cared about Lebanon and were not out for Iranian or Syrian interests.
It seems like this plan has backfired but has given them the opportunity to become even more influential in the state. During the current crisis Hezbollah has almost complete control of Lebanon, while the central government just watches and complains. They have the most military power and its foreign policy decisions are more important then the Prime Minister’s. Nasrallah has no intentions in letting the March 14th alliance gain from this conflict. He has made it known that if the government supports and ceasefire it has to go through the Party of God first. The government is so weak that at this stage any sign of tension could almost lead to a civil war. Hezbollah knows this war domestically speaking is about their weapons. At this stage it is hard to see the Party gets wiped out. They will most likely agree to a ceasefire as long it doesn't compromise their weapons. If the national dialogue continues they will feel they will be able to keep their weapons permanently and use this crisis as their defense and the issue will be closed. This crisis shows how important and powerful they are, reason which they will continue to justify its reasons for keeping its weapons
With the conflict exacerbating, Hezbollah wants the Lebanese to remember that they lead the Lebanese resistance that they care about their sovereignty and freedom from occupation. If they gain more support from non Shia citizens during this time of crisis then they should be able to bring down the anti-Syrian government. Israel will be doing its best to weaken its hold on Lebanon but in the end Hezbollah’s fate will be decided on the street and in the capitals of Tehran and Damascus.