Withdrawing from Iraq Comes Down to Iran

The debate over whether the US should either, stay the course, or withdrawal is coming around full circle with the recent election of the new Congress. The best option can only be delivered if we know the complete dimensions of the insurgency in relation to Iran. People who want to withdrawal believe that the war has become a major burden and is not capable of productive results. Many advocates of the "stay the course," believe we should stay there to prevent civil war and Iran's hegemony over the Fertile Crescent. There is one thing that can either help or kill these arguments and that is Iran. It is a fact that the invasion of Iraq completely changed the balance of power in Iran's favor. US forces in Iraq besides trying to help the fledgling Iraqi government, is there to keep Iran in check. Al Qaeda in Iraq is continuing to make its own presence felt as well. Al Qaeda itself is justification for continued American presence. It is a wild card and whomever’s hand that has it can have major implications on US strategy in Iraq.

Advocates who believe the US should stay the course argue that if we leave Iraq, then Iran will take our place. The Iranians and their Syrian allies would be neighbors and be able to open a joint front against Israel and continue to threaten our interests in the Middle East. At the same time Al Qaeda and other insurgents will become more powerful in Iraq. This logic could become a fact if the relationship between Iran and Al Qaeda could be proven, but due to pre-war intelligence failures who is going to trust our intelligence this time? The relationship between al Qaeda and Iran is very sketchy at best.

Most Sunni extremists particularly of the Salafi,Wahabbi strain consider Shia Islam as heretical. Iran is the only Shia power in the region and many Sunnis would not like to be dominated by them. They fear that Iran is seeking to control the Arab World through its influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon and that they are exploiting the Israeli- Palestinian conflict to reach its goals. Ethnically Iran is Persian, as opposed to Arab, which most Iraqis are Arab. The Islamic Army of Iraq an indigenous Sunni Islamic insurgent group with ties to Al Qaeda sent CNN a message a few weeks ago calling for negotiations with the US, in the video they answered a few questions asked by CNN. They mentioned how they accused the US of bringing Iranian occupation upon them. It is believed that they want negotiations with the US because they view the Iraqi government is influenced by Iran. It has to be remembered that Saddam's Iraq was dominated by Sunni's and now they feel disenfranchised and do not like the Iranian supported, Shia government governing them. They differ from Al Qaeda because they have only a local agenda, while Al Qaeda's agenda is international. Subsequently, Al Qaeda's statement after the US elections, mentioned their distaste for Hassan Nasrallah Hezbollah's leader for being to close to IranAKI. Also, an Al Qaeda website just recently called Sunnis in Lebanon to confront Hezbollah, accusing Hezbollah of trying to eliminate the Sunnis, and being controlled by Syria and Iran An Nahar .A few Al Qaeda websites in the past warned their brethren not to fall in the path of state sponsorship like Hezbollah and Hamas.

On the flip side, Iran desires to be the leader of the Islamic World and have crossed the aisle and supported Sunni extremists groups against Israel and to lesser extent Jordan. The maxim that says the enemy of my enemy is my friend could ring true. Sunni extremists and Iran have a few things in common mainly their hatred of the US and Israel, as well as, their Arab stooges. There are reports that there are hidden ties between the upper echelons of the Islamic Republic and Al Qaeda that have existed prior to 9/11 MEMRI There have been rumors that some of the tactics used by the Sunni insurgent groups were assisted by Iran and also by Syria. According to the British daily the Telegraph, Iran is training future Al Qaeda leaders to lead the organization once Osama Bin Laden dies. Becoming Al Qaeda’s state sponsor would give Iran a monopoly over Islamic groups and dominance in the Islamic World

During the Summer War the Sunni states condemned Hezbollah for triggering the war against Israel; the Arab street on the other hand praised Hezbollah. Al Qaeda and other Sunni groups showed mixed reactions to Hezbollah. Al Qaeda number two Ayman al-Zawahiri said that Muslims everywhere has a duty to fight against the Zionists alongside the Muslims in Lebanon and Gaza. It may be important to note that he did not mention Hezbollah by name, disturbingly he mentioned that they must continue the jihad to liberate all Muslim lands from Spain to Iraq. A few radical Saudi clerics have issued Fatwas telling Muslims not to support Hezbollah or even "pray" for them.Jerusalem Post

In conclusion it is really difficult to discern Iran’s intentions in Iraq once the US leaves. Iran probably does have some ties to Al Qaeda but most likely does not involve much state sponsorship. Many Sunni extremist may be happy to join Iran in a fight against Israel, but what would happen if Iran succeeds in defeating Israel? Iran will be the dominant regional superpower and the version Islam represented by them would look extraordinarily good; the radical Sunnis would have the most to lose. Regardless, Al Qaeda would no longer be the same entity, Al Qaeda in Iraq, the Islamic Army, and other insurgent groups will most likely disavow any Iranian influence in their country, and would cause many problems, once the US were to withdrawal. Many other Sunnis who share in Salafist ideology would feel the same way. If Iran succeeds in forming some type of alliance with Al Qaeda proper, then the organization itself will break off into different factions and in some regard lose its legitimacy.

Finally, if the latter is true that Iran and Al Qaeda will collaborate then it would spell trouble for the US and make regime change option may look really tempting, besides keeping the status quo in Iraq. It could easily be argued that parts of Al Qaeda would claim that they collaborate with Iran, in order for the US to launch another invasion and weaken its Islamic rival. A British and French mole within Al Qaeda claimed that Al Qaeda fabricated its alleged links to Iraq, in order to compel the US to invade BBC. If the Iraqi Sunni community/insurgency is as anti-Iranian as they say they are then it should be expected that Iran itself could be drawn into a quagmire of its own once US forces leave. Unfortunately the prospects of civil war would still loom.