War in Lebanon after July 15th?

On Thursday it was reported in the press that Syria has ordered all of its citizens in Lebanon to return to Syria by July 15th. Syrian students studying in Lebanon would be able to take classes back in Syrian universities. Syrian authorities took this move due to the lack of stability in Lebanon. MEMRI

Usually when countries warn there citizens to leave it is either due to terrorism or the outbreak of a war. Lebanon has not been the most stable of countries in recent years. It seems a little surprising that they take this step now. Lebanon has been polarized by sharp divisions between the anti-Syrian government and the pro-Syrian opposition. Syria which had occupied Lebanon for almost 25 years, withdrew its troops in April 2005 after popular protests. The ruling coalition accuses Syria of trying to destabilize the country by assassinating its politicians and by using its allies to try to bring down the government. The conflict between the Lebanese Army and Fatah al Islam extremists at the Nahr al Bared refugee camp is believed to have been instigated under Syrian orders.

Politically, the situation is getting more and more volatile. President Emile Lahoud’s term expires in September. Due to the constant bickering between the government and the opposition, a new president would most likely not get picked. There are already talks that the pro-Syrian opposition may form a second government if both sides fail to agree on a candidate. If the Opposition does form a second government then it could lead to a civil war.

Recently when major events occur in Lebanon, it happens when Syria or Iran are in the hot seat. The Summer War instigated by staunchly pro-Syria and pro-Iran Hezbollah occurred when Iran had to face the UN Security Council over its nuclear dossier. The attacks by Fatah al Islam occurred after the UN agreed to create a tribunal to try Rafik Hariri’s assassins’. The ruling coalition believes that Syria was behind the assassination of the former Lebanese prime minister. On July 16th, the UN is going to discuss UN resolution 1701, which ended the Summer War. It may recommend that the Syrian-Lebanese border needs to be monitored, which Syria doesn’t like among other recommendations. During that time, the investigators in the Hariri assassination are to submit another report to the Security Council.

Syrian President Bashar Assad has warned UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon that Lebanon would become destablized if the UN formed the Hariri tribunal and had reportedly threatened Lebanese leaders in the past. Some of the allegations were mentioned in the first UN report on the Hariri investigation.

Many people in the Middle East believe that they are in for another hot summer. To allay fears, Israel has told Syria that they have no plans to start another war. Despite that, Syria still likes to instill fear in the public that Israel is plotting war. After the triumph of Hamas in Gaza, Iran and Syria may feel more emboldened to plot one and use its proxies to carry it out. Beware of the ides of July.