Iran's War for Hegemony in the Middle East

Since 2003, Iran has aided Shiite Militias in Iraq, mainly the Mahdi Army, and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. The Mahdi Army has been the most violent against American forces in Iraq, while both have been accused of causing widespread sectarian violence against Sunnis in Iraq. Sunni insurgents themselves fear that Iran is as much as a threat to them as the US forces. Iranian influence is expected to increase once US forces withdrawl. Sunni Arab States such as Saudi Arabia have threatened to aid Sunni insurgents in order to protect them against the Iranian backed Shiite militas. If Iraq becomes an ally, if not a puppet of Iran, it will be given a supply route to help arm its anti-Israeli proxies and make it closer to the Jewish state in time of war. This would definitely help Iran to get closer to Lebanon.

The Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah has been trying flex it muscles in recent months, both militarily and politically. The Israelis consider Hezbollah as a Lebanese wing of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, since they collaborate with eachother and receive most of its funding and arms from Iran. The summer war between Hezbollah and Israel and the kidnappings of an Israeli soldier near Gaza by Hamas, shows how Iran can easily stir up trouble against her enemies. During the Summer War, the Sunni Arab States of Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia criticized Hezbollah for starting the war. The Arab street showed support for Hezbollah on the street in deference to conservative Sunni Orthodoxy, which believes Shiite Muslims are heretical.


Currently in Lebanon, there is a political crisis that may lead to a renewed civil war. Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian/Iranian allies have take the streets in order to force the Anti-Syrian government to resign or to cede some power to the opposition. The democratically elected government led by Prime Minister Fuad Saniora, a Sunni Muslim, in a coaltion with Anti-Syrian politicians composed of Sunnis, Christians, and Druze. The Hezbollah opposion consists of mainly Shia groups, with minuscule amounts of Christians and Sunnis. There has been sporadic sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shiites occurring in Beirut in the passed few days, in which one Shiite has been killed. The government believes that Syria is behind the violence to destablize the country and have actually arrested a few Syrians. Egypt warned that it if the crisis continues, it could become regionalized. People from Arab countries would flock to support the Lebanese government, and people would also flock on behalf of Hezbollah creating a hot war. If Hezbollah and her allies topple the government, then a pro-Syrian/Iranian government would take its place, and Lebanese interests would then become subordinated to the interests of Iran and Syria. A new Lebanese front against Israel would be expected to open up relatively soon.

Finally, Palestine is under the brink of civil war. The killing of a Palestinian intelligence official's children, the security official. The officer is a supporter of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who also leads the Fatah organization. Fatah has blamed it on Hamas, the militant group that has the majority in parliament, in which Ismail Haniyeh is the Prime Minister. Since the death of Yasir Arafat, Fatah has been given support by Jordan, Egypt and to a lesser extent the US and Israel. Fatah signed the Oslo accord under the PLO and has recognized Israel's right to exist. Hamas, on the hand, is supported by Syria and Iran and has refused to support Israel's right to exist. Hamas' military wing is based in Damascus and is a bit more extreme than its political wing based in Gaza. Iran and Syria have given Hamas, as well as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (also based in Damascus) aid and weapons to fight their war against Israel. According to Israeli officials, Israel has allowed allowed Egypt to send weapons and ammunition to bloster the security forces of President Abbas. No doubt that if a civil war occurs those weapons would be used against Hamas. US and European officials earlier this week were in Jordan at a Fatah base where Palestinians were receiving military training. The Bush administration is preparing to ask congress for money to help President Abbas' Presidential Guards and strengthen its control over the border crossings. Its not a secret that the Sunni states of Egypt and Jordan dislike Iran and its increasing influence in the region.

The Sunni-Shiite cold war thats taking place can become hot at anyime. In Iraq it is already happening, international intervention by states like Saudi Arabia has not occurred since American forces are still present. Its the impression of this author that Syria is trying to inflame the tensions in Beirut, but it seems like the major leaders on Lebanon do not want to be accused of firing the first shot. Like in Beirut, the threat of elections could cause the tension to boil, since Hamas does not want early elections, which is what Abbas has been proposing. Iran's hegemonic tendencies may not just destablize the Middle East and may spread to its neighboring Shia state, Azerbaijan.