Losing Lebanon in Annapolis

After last Saturday's failed election to elect Lebanon's next President, the political crisis escalated leaving little room for the Pro-Western government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora to maneuver. On Tuesday in Annapolis the US held a summit with Arab and Israeli leaders to help solve the Arab Israeli conflict. Syria was invited by the US while they snubbed Iran. On wednesday the Pro-Western Lebanese factions took an about face and supported the candidacy of Gen. Michel Suleiman for President.

The issue in the piece is the candidacy of Gen. Suleiman and what it means to the Lebanese Nationalists of the Cedar Revolution. The Cedar Revolution occurred after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. It triggered mass protests and forced Syria to withdraw its military from Lebanon. A few months ago when the idea of nominating Suleiman for President was first floated, it was rejected by the ruling "March 14" coalition, soundly. For the General to become President would mean that the Lebanese Constitution would have to be amended. The Constitution stipulates that the President cannot be a person who is currently in the military and if he was he would have to be out of the military for at least two years. Then this week they suddenly agreed to the nomination. March 14 previously expressed its reservations, discreetly accusing him of having close ties to Syria but mainly playing the constitution as a card. Michel Suleiman does have close ties to Syria; his brother in law was former Syrian President Hafez Assad's spokesman, Gebran Kuriyyeh. He was also selected as Army Commander under Syrian domination and by former President Emile Lahoud MEIB. He is also known in some circles to be pro-Hezbollah. His election as President would continue to stonewall the March 14th coalition until the next elections. During the next parliamentary elections for there to be a victor, the victor would have to garner the support of the Pro-Syrian-Iranian Shia parties of Amal and Hezbollah. These powerful parties on their own have already proven that they can stop any pro-American agenda.

In regards to the Annapolis summit, this event might have been the catalyst for the turn around in Lebanon. Some people have come to the opinion that in order for the US to isolate Iran they needed Syria to attend. Publicly the US said that they managed to get Syria to appear because the issue of the Golan Heights would be highlighted. Due to the Presidential crisis in Lebanon, induced by Syria, this issue would almost have to come up as well. A compromised might have well been in order UPI. Suleiman might have appeared alright to the US since he never openly to got in the way of Pro-Western government. The US has sold Lebanon once back in 1990 in order to extract concessions from Syria(Support for the Gulf War) it might gently do it again this time over the Iranian dossier.

According to the Israeli perspective, it was the Saudis who compromised with Syria during the meetings. It was the Saudi Foreign Minister and the Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister who met while Bush was meeting Israeli Prime Minster Olmert. The Saudis along with the US and France are the main backers of the March 14th coalition. The Saudis and Syrians at the very least have common ground with their loathe of Israel.

At this point the March 14th coalition maybe seeing its last days as a force of hope and change in Lebanon. Iran, Syria and Hezbollah will have the last laugh. Lebanon's future has never seen dimmer. Civil war might have been averted in the short term, but sadly it may just cloud it's future.