US Policy Shifting on Iran: Talking

If an objective person where to compare the Middle East of a few months ago with the Middle East of the present they would notice some peaceful differences. In early May there was fighting in Sadr City between the Mahdi Army and US and Iraqi troops. In Beirut Hezbollah and its allies went on a rampage in and seized half of the Lebanese capital after the Pro West government tried to assert more state control of telephone lines and the airport. Gas prices skyrocketed. The US and Iran continued to amp up the rhetoric between them. Fast forward to the present. Baghdad is largely peaceful. The US is now thinking about withdrawing troops from Iraq to Afghanistan; Lebanese political factions signed the Doha Accord bringing the syro-Iranian backed oppostion in to the cabinet; gas prices are slowly falling. The US announced that they are bringing a senior level US diplomat to the nuclear negotiations with Iran. The State Department said that it would meet the Syrians if they were to request a meeting.- Yahoo This would not have been said publicly a few months ago. Something is changing in the Middle East. According to Debka, a subtle shift of policy has made the difference.

Convergence of Interests?

The Middle East has been relatively polarized between the West and its Arab allies the surrogates of Iran and Syria in a proxy war for hegemony. The violence in the middle east is sponsored by Iran in opposition to American allies. In the past month or so ceasefires were reached between March 14th(Pro West) Lebanese government and Hezbollah, Israel and Hamas, Prisoner exchange between Israel and Hezbollah, Al Sadr and the Iraqi government. Israel has also been trying to negotiate peace with Syria. All of these ceasefires and talks have been supported by Iran. Prior to these talks there was only political deadlock, mounting oil prices, and bile. Now there is just the normal tension and bellicose statements. Being election year here in America, Bush needs to find reasons for the Republican Party to win in November. Iraq has been inching towards a degree of stabilit Iran as been the stumbling block preventing it from happening. The war in Afghanistan is getting worse. Iranian and American interests converge on these issues. Iran does not like permanent instability along both of its borders. Iran always wanted US forces to leave Iraq and instead of the US taking out its proxies why not allow them to concentrate on Al Qaeda, which is one of the biggest killers of Shiites. A resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan is also menacing towards Iran, even though Iran might have aided the Taliban at some point in the passed few years. Iran is not afraid of Republican administrations and actually supported them; they Ronald Reagan over Jimmy Carter. In my view Republicans usually help them foster more anti-American sentiment which serves their base well. According to a few different news sources, the US is planning to open an interest section in Teheran. An interest section gives the US diplomatic presence in Iran that is roughly half the size of a full scale embassy. Currently the Swiss embassy house's the US interest section, which is run entirely by the Swiss. -Fars

The End of the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon?

The Debka article mentioned that the US withdrew its support of the "Syrian opposition factions". From an American perspective, supporting a strong Lebanese state may not be worth the investment. Lebanon is a very small country and strategically unimportant. Also this could mean that the Bush Administration is beginning to follow some of the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group. The Group led by former Bush 41 Secretary of State James A. Baker III called for the Adminstration to engage Syria. Under Baker's tenure as Secretary of State, the US allowed Syria to have control over Lebanon in order for Syria to support the US in the Gulf War.

The scenario does seem somewhat likely. After the fall of West Beirut to Iranian and Syrian factions, the March 14th coalition agreed to their demands by signing the Doha According, giving the opposition veto power in the cabinet and repealing govenment decisons that went against Hezbollah. Pro-government faction barely gave a fight in the brief conflict. The Accords did end the politcal stalemate albeit briefly. Since the Accord the coalition has not been as united. In an interview a few days ago Lebanese MP and leader of the Progessive Socialist Party, a critic of Syria and Hezbollah with very pro-Western views, sent a very sobering message, saying that the coalition needs to pay more attention to "Palestine and Arabism"- Daily Star These were Jumblatt's main concerns during the pre-Cedar Revolution era; it was most prominent during the Lebanese Civil War. The US allies in Lebanon have slowly been caving in to most of Syrian-Hezbollah's demands during the last year. The Ministerial statement that is just about to be released will have a reference the "resistance". In layman's terms the resistance is the name Hezbollah and other militants give themselves to justify their state within a state, that exists to "resist" Israel. The next parliamentary elections which take place next year will give us a full measurement to see if the Cedar Revolution has failed.

The Israeli Hezbollah prisoner swap may also support this trend. See my previous post. Israel legitimizes Hezbollah with this swap and previous swaps. Debka does not say that Israel has any involvement with US reapproachment with Iran. Although there are quite a few negatives there are a few positives to come out of the Lebanese developments. Firstly the seat of President has finally been filled after seven month vacancy and Syria last month announced their plan to finally build an embassy in Lebanon which should mean that Syria recognizes it's independence. Syria has been acting different during the last 6 months in ways that have been favorable to the US. For information on that see Olivier Guitta's column in the Middle East Times. To go along with that column, a Syrian general, who was allegedly Syria's liasion with Hezbollah, was gun downed over the weekend. Six months ago Imad Mughniyeh, one of Hezbollah's top leaders, who was one of the US' most wanted terrorists was killed in a car bomb in Damascus. - Daily Star

What Taking to Iran Could Spell Out

The Daily Star article mentioned above actually ties this piece together. The other day the Iranian Vice President told the reporters after meeting IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei "if the negotiations get under way, then solutions could be found for many problems like Iraq, Lebanon and fuel prices." It appears that the US understood that. Perhaps both parties are learning that the game of brinkmanship is not the best way to levy power in the Middle East. To bring an end to wars, states must negotiate a peace or bring about a ceasefire; they would have to talk. This is also true in wars by proxy.