The War Between Russian and Georgia: The Bigger Picture

Last week the conflict between the former Soviet Republic of Georgia and the separatists of South Ossetia escalated when Russia intervened to support the Separatists. Russia's pretext for the technical invasion of Georgia's sovereignty was that its peacekeepers in South Ossetia were attacked by Georgia. Georgia might have purposely attacked the peacekeepers because the support the separatists who are backed by Moscow. Russia has sent in over a 100 tanks and thousands of troops to back them and may have sent troops to Georgia's other pro-Russian separatist region of Abkhazia. As of this writing it is believed that Russia has control of most of South Ossetia and has bombed strategic locations throughout Georgia and its remaining stronghold in Abkhazia. This conflict has local and international implications. Firstly its a local conflict pitting Russia and the pro-Russian separatist regions of Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, against the Republic of Georgia. The conflict is also Russia versus the US/NATO/ West. Georgia is a pro-American country that has receieved military aid from Washington and has committed troops to Iraq.

Warning to NATO

The US has been calling for NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine, while other NATO members dismiss it fearing a harsh Russian response. Russia does not want to see anymore its neighbors join the Alliance. NATO itself does not want to get embroiled in a conflict with Russia. Georgia's problems with Russia are reasons enough for Georgia not to become a member.

The US is also trying to build a missile defense shield located in Europe to fend of a possible Iranian missile attack. Russia claims the missile shield would be used against them. In the past year Russia has escalated bellicose statements and sent its bombers to fly off the Atlantic coast like it did during the Soviet days. Russia does not think that the West takes it seriously and is now using Georgia to project its power.

Its the Oil Stupid

One of its ways to block NATO for supporting Georgia and Ukraine's acession was by playing the energy card. Russia supplies Europe with most of its oil, "disruptions" in supply in Russia or its pipelines could cause an economic crisis in Europe. Georgia holds an oil pipeline on its territory, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline. The oil comes from Azerbaijan and goes to Europe. This pipeline is the only pipeline in the region that does not go through Russia, which means that Russia does not have any benefits over it unless it oil stops flowing. If the oil stops flowing, oil prices will increase and the countries that benefit from this pipeline will face losses. This weekend the Russians bombed the pipeline but the bombs missed.- Daily Mail

Message to other Former Soviet Republics

Georgia is not the only former Soviet Republic with ethnic conflicts that have been exploited by Russia. Like Georgia, the Republic of Moldova has a pro-Russian separatist region. Trans-Dniester like South Ossetia has had de facto independence for years and is protected by Russian peacekeepers. In Azerbaijan the region of Nagorno Karabakh, has been site of an armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The region is ethnically Armenian. Russia supported Armenia in the conflict, which its been using as leverage with Azerbaijan and to keep its influence in the lower Caucuses near the oil pipelines. Heritage The Ukraine is a country that is divided by its pro-Russian East and its pro-Western West. The Orange Revolution has increased the polarization of the country. Russia has been meddling in Ukrainian affairs for a long time, it would not be difficult to provoke a new crisis. Russia's relationship with the Baltic nations has been very antagonistic especially now that they are a part of NATO and the EU. Russia has
accused them of discriminating against their Russian speaking minorities.

The Endgame

The war in against Georgia should be over in a very few days. Georgia and the international community has been calling for a ceasefire. Georgia promised to withdraw troops from S. Ossetia as demanded by Russia but Russia has continued its onslaught and created a second front in Abkhazia and might have invaded Georgia proper. Currently Georgia has restarted shelling from its positions. According to reports, Russia has moved close to the capital of Tbilisi. -AP Although there is still fighting in S. Ossetia, Russia largely controls both separatist regions, accomplishing what is believed to be the main goal in its offensive. It could also be said that it has taught Georgia a lesson.

If Russia's goal is to occupy Georgia it is not far away. Occupying Georgia is not going to make the international community comfortable and will hurt Russia's standing, especially if it tries to install its own government. Other neighboring countries may rethink of their relationship with Russia vis a vis the West. Russia by threatening to occupy Georgia may try to use its power to get a say in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline or even force Georgia to pay compensation. The result of this conflict could shed a new unfavorable light on Russia in the eyes of the West and could lead to less cooperation and more confrontation.