Another Critic of Moscow Killed in Russia

An owner of a regional news website was shot and killed under police custody. Magomed Yevloyev a Russian journalist who was critical of the Kremlim-backed leader of the Russian republic of Ingushetia. The Russian government ordered the website to be closed in June due to ite"extremist" views.

Syria Tries to Make Gains with Russia over Tension with the West.

Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad is in Moscow visiting its leaders and discussing the Middle East issues and biltateral relations AKI . Assad is going to take advantage of the current tensions between Russa and the West vis-a-vis Georgia. Syria has taken Russia's side over the conflict in the Causcuses and accuses the West of trying to "encircle" Russia. Russia has accused Israel of aiding Georgia and will use Syria to put pressure on them.

To agitate the West and Israel, Russia may give Syria a better arms deal perhaps, anti-aircraft missile systems in order to gain more leverage in the Middle East. Israel has fears that this conflict will hurt Israeli-Russian relations and Russia by increasing its leverage will only strengthen Israel's enemies. Iran is probably having a field day with this tension. It will certainly buy them more time with their nuclear program, although at the same time, Iran itself will have issues with Russia's increasing influence in its back yard, which itself would be a major threat to its regional interests and national security.

The War Between Russian and Georgia: The Bigger Picture

Last week the conflict between the former Soviet Republic of Georgia and the separatists of South Ossetia escalated when Russia intervened to support the Separatists. Russia's pretext for the technical invasion of Georgia's sovereignty was that its peacekeepers in South Ossetia were attacked by Georgia. Georgia might have purposely attacked the peacekeepers because the support the separatists who are backed by Moscow. Russia has sent in over a 100 tanks and thousands of troops to back them and may have sent troops to Georgia's other pro-Russian separatist region of Abkhazia. As of this writing it is believed that Russia has control of most of South Ossetia and has bombed strategic locations throughout Georgia and its remaining stronghold in Abkhazia. This conflict has local and international implications. Firstly its a local conflict pitting Russia and the pro-Russian separatist regions of Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, against the Republic of Georgia. The conflict is also Russia versus the US/NATO/ West. Georgia is a pro-American country that has receieved military aid from Washington and has committed troops to Iraq.

Warning to NATO

The US has been calling for NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine, while other NATO members dismiss it fearing a harsh Russian response. Russia does not want to see anymore its neighbors join the Alliance. NATO itself does not want to get embroiled in a conflict with Russia. Georgia's problems with Russia are reasons enough for Georgia not to become a member.

The US is also trying to build a missile defense shield located in Europe to fend of a possible Iranian missile attack. Russia claims the missile shield would be used against them. In the past year Russia has escalated bellicose statements and sent its bombers to fly off the Atlantic coast like it did during the Soviet days. Russia does not think that the West takes it seriously and is now using Georgia to project its power.

Its the Oil Stupid

One of its ways to block NATO for supporting Georgia and Ukraine's acession was by playing the energy card. Russia supplies Europe with most of its oil, "disruptions" in supply in Russia or its pipelines could cause an economic crisis in Europe. Georgia holds an oil pipeline on its territory, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline. The oil comes from Azerbaijan and goes to Europe. This pipeline is the only pipeline in the region that does not go through Russia, which means that Russia does not have any benefits over it unless it oil stops flowing. If the oil stops flowing, oil prices will increase and the countries that benefit from this pipeline will face losses. This weekend the Russians bombed the pipeline but the bombs missed.- Daily Mail

Message to other Former Soviet Republics

Georgia is not the only former Soviet Republic with ethnic conflicts that have been exploited by Russia. Like Georgia, the Republic of Moldova has a pro-Russian separatist region. Trans-Dniester like South Ossetia has had de facto independence for years and is protected by Russian peacekeepers. In Azerbaijan the region of Nagorno Karabakh, has been site of an armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The region is ethnically Armenian. Russia supported Armenia in the conflict, which its been using as leverage with Azerbaijan and to keep its influence in the lower Caucuses near the oil pipelines. Heritage The Ukraine is a country that is divided by its pro-Russian East and its pro-Western West. The Orange Revolution has increased the polarization of the country. Russia has been meddling in Ukrainian affairs for a long time, it would not be difficult to provoke a new crisis. Russia's relationship with the Baltic nations has been very antagonistic especially now that they are a part of NATO and the EU. Russia has
accused them of discriminating against their Russian speaking minorities.

The Endgame

The war in against Georgia should be over in a very few days. Georgia and the international community has been calling for a ceasefire. Georgia promised to withdraw troops from S. Ossetia as demanded by Russia but Russia has continued its onslaught and created a second front in Abkhazia and might have invaded Georgia proper. Currently Georgia has restarted shelling from its positions. According to reports, Russia has moved close to the capital of Tbilisi. -AP Although there is still fighting in S. Ossetia, Russia largely controls both separatist regions, accomplishing what is believed to be the main goal in its offensive. It could also be said that it has taught Georgia a lesson.

If Russia's goal is to occupy Georgia it is not far away. Occupying Georgia is not going to make the international community comfortable and will hurt Russia's standing, especially if it tries to install its own government. Other neighboring countries may rethink of their relationship with Russia vis a vis the West. Russia by threatening to occupy Georgia may try to use its power to get a say in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline or even force Georgia to pay compensation. The result of this conflict could shed a new unfavorable light on Russia in the eyes of the West and could lead to less cooperation and more confrontation.

US Policy Shifting on Iran: Talking

If an objective person where to compare the Middle East of a few months ago with the Middle East of the present they would notice some peaceful differences. In early May there was fighting in Sadr City between the Mahdi Army and US and Iraqi troops. In Beirut Hezbollah and its allies went on a rampage in and seized half of the Lebanese capital after the Pro West government tried to assert more state control of telephone lines and the airport. Gas prices skyrocketed. The US and Iran continued to amp up the rhetoric between them. Fast forward to the present. Baghdad is largely peaceful. The US is now thinking about withdrawing troops from Iraq to Afghanistan; Lebanese political factions signed the Doha Accord bringing the syro-Iranian backed oppostion in to the cabinet; gas prices are slowly falling. The US announced that they are bringing a senior level US diplomat to the nuclear negotiations with Iran. The State Department said that it would meet the Syrians if they were to request a meeting.- Yahoo This would not have been said publicly a few months ago. Something is changing in the Middle East. According to Debka, a subtle shift of policy has made the difference.

Convergence of Interests?

The Middle East has been relatively polarized between the West and its Arab allies the surrogates of Iran and Syria in a proxy war for hegemony. The violence in the middle east is sponsored by Iran in opposition to American allies. In the past month or so ceasefires were reached between March 14th(Pro West) Lebanese government and Hezbollah, Israel and Hamas, Prisoner exchange between Israel and Hezbollah, Al Sadr and the Iraqi government. Israel has also been trying to negotiate peace with Syria. All of these ceasefires and talks have been supported by Iran. Prior to these talks there was only political deadlock, mounting oil prices, and bile. Now there is just the normal tension and bellicose statements. Being election year here in America, Bush needs to find reasons for the Republican Party to win in November. Iraq has been inching towards a degree of stabilit Iran as been the stumbling block preventing it from happening. The war in Afghanistan is getting worse. Iranian and American interests converge on these issues. Iran does not like permanent instability along both of its borders. Iran always wanted US forces to leave Iraq and instead of the US taking out its proxies why not allow them to concentrate on Al Qaeda, which is one of the biggest killers of Shiites. A resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan is also menacing towards Iran, even though Iran might have aided the Taliban at some point in the passed few years. Iran is not afraid of Republican administrations and actually supported them; they Ronald Reagan over Jimmy Carter. In my view Republicans usually help them foster more anti-American sentiment which serves their base well. According to a few different news sources, the US is planning to open an interest section in Teheran. An interest section gives the US diplomatic presence in Iran that is roughly half the size of a full scale embassy. Currently the Swiss embassy house's the US interest section, which is run entirely by the Swiss. -Fars

The End of the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon?

The Debka article mentioned that the US withdrew its support of the "Syrian opposition factions". From an American perspective, supporting a strong Lebanese state may not be worth the investment. Lebanon is a very small country and strategically unimportant. Also this could mean that the Bush Administration is beginning to follow some of the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group. The Group led by former Bush 41 Secretary of State James A. Baker III called for the Adminstration to engage Syria. Under Baker's tenure as Secretary of State, the US allowed Syria to have control over Lebanon in order for Syria to support the US in the Gulf War.

The scenario does seem somewhat likely. After the fall of West Beirut to Iranian and Syrian factions, the March 14th coalition agreed to their demands by signing the Doha According, giving the opposition veto power in the cabinet and repealing govenment decisons that went against Hezbollah. Pro-government faction barely gave a fight in the brief conflict. The Accords did end the politcal stalemate albeit briefly. Since the Accord the coalition has not been as united. In an interview a few days ago Lebanese MP and leader of the Progessive Socialist Party, a critic of Syria and Hezbollah with very pro-Western views, sent a very sobering message, saying that the coalition needs to pay more attention to "Palestine and Arabism"- Daily Star These were Jumblatt's main concerns during the pre-Cedar Revolution era; it was most prominent during the Lebanese Civil War. The US allies in Lebanon have slowly been caving in to most of Syrian-Hezbollah's demands during the last year. The Ministerial statement that is just about to be released will have a reference the "resistance". In layman's terms the resistance is the name Hezbollah and other militants give themselves to justify their state within a state, that exists to "resist" Israel. The next parliamentary elections which take place next year will give us a full measurement to see if the Cedar Revolution has failed.

The Israeli Hezbollah prisoner swap may also support this trend. See my previous post. Israel legitimizes Hezbollah with this swap and previous swaps. Debka does not say that Israel has any involvement with US reapproachment with Iran. Although there are quite a few negatives there are a few positives to come out of the Lebanese developments. Firstly the seat of President has finally been filled after seven month vacancy and Syria last month announced their plan to finally build an embassy in Lebanon which should mean that Syria recognizes it's independence. Syria has been acting different during the last 6 months in ways that have been favorable to the US. For information on that see Olivier Guitta's column in the Middle East Times. To go along with that column, a Syrian general, who was allegedly Syria's liasion with Hezbollah, was gun downed over the weekend. Six months ago Imad Mughniyeh, one of Hezbollah's top leaders, who was one of the US' most wanted terrorists was killed in a car bomb in Damascus. - Daily Star

What Taking to Iran Could Spell Out

The Daily Star article mentioned above actually ties this piece together. The other day the Iranian Vice President told the reporters after meeting IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei "if the negotiations get under way, then solutions could be found for many problems like Iraq, Lebanon and fuel prices." It appears that the US understood that. Perhaps both parties are learning that the game of brinkmanship is not the best way to levy power in the Middle East. To bring an end to wars, states must negotiate a peace or bring about a ceasefire; they would have to talk. This is also true in wars by proxy.